US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 1.1% m/m rebound in control group retail sales in January provides some reassurance that consumer spending isn’t falling off a cliff. But with sales now estimated to have plunged by an even... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: SARB nationalisation would have little effect Talk of “nationalising” the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) put pressure on the rand last week. The move – which would bring the Bank in line with global norms – would have no effect on the bank’s... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish CPI (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected rise in core Norwegian inflation in February makes it all but certain that the Norges Bank will increase interest rates at its policy meeting later this month. However... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s decline in industrial production adds to the evidence that the economy made a weak start to 2019. And timelier indicators suggest that output is unlikely to increase strongly in the coming... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The Turkish economy formally entered into recession in the final quarter of last year and, while the worst of the downturn may now have passed, the weak carryover means that we expect GDP to decline... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) The sharp drop in lending last month reversed much of the jump in January. With the trajectory of credit growth still pointing to further economic weakness, we think the People’s Bank will need to... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All the signs point to weaker demand After a relatively quiet week, the prices of most commodities took a tumble on Friday afternoon following the release of weak US February employment data. A rise of just 20,000 in non-farm payrolls... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Carnival hangover for real & Argentine peso The sharp falls in the Argentine peso and Brazilian real in the second half of the week reflected both worsening global risk appetite and domestic political concerns. A few weeks ago it had felt that... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank rows back from further rate hikes The Bank of Canada admitted this week that it had been caught out by the broad-based nature of the recent economic slowdown. But its forecasts continue to envisage a strong rebound in growth, which we... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Some positives beneath the gloomy headlines Attention on Friday was inevitably captured by the terrible February payrolls number but, looking back at developments this week, there was also a surprising number of positives. 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) Our Tracker suggests that overall EM capital outflows eased in February, mirroring the broader improvement in investor sentiment towards the emerging world. But more timely data indicate that this was... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) The good news that single-family starts saw their largest month-on-month gain for 40-years was tempered to some extent by a drop in building permits to an 18-month low, which implies that surge will... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The slump in payroll employment growth in February reinforces the message from the incoming activity data that economic growth is slowing below its 2% potential pace in the first quarter. That makes... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The further rise in employment in February will help to soothe fears that Canada’s economy slowed even further at the start of the year. While pay growth was also stronger than expected, the big drop... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB ahead of the curve, rebound in growth unlikely The ECB’s decision to launch more TLTROs and strengthen its interest rate guidance means that it is, at least for now, ahead of the curve. But we think the Bank is still too optimistic about economic... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
