UK Commercial Property Update Labour market data positive for London office rents Strong growth in London office-based jobs at the end of last year point to a decent pick up in office rental value growth in central London in the first quarter of 2019. However, with office-based... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth faltered in early 2019 Retail sales growth picked up in January, but activity data across the economy as a whole were weak at the start of 2019. Growth will probably remain subdued over Q1, but then strengthen later in the... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Budget 2019 won’t drive pick-up in growth The modest increase in spending detailed in Canada’s 2019 federal budget does little to alter the economic outlook. The onus therefore remains on the Bank of Canada to support the economy. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) With inflation on the up and signs of increasing inflationary pressures in the labour market, we doubt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will sit on its hands for long after tomorrow’s meeting. If... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb.) South African inflation stayed low in February, and while it will probably pick up over the coming months, it will remain within target. We hold the non-consensus view that the next move will be a cut... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn becoming a major drag We believe that the downturn in the housing market will have a larger negative impact on the economy than most believe and have lowered our GDP forecast for 2019 to 1.5%. The upshot is that the labour... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rupee rally unlikely to last The 3% rise in the rupee against the US dollar so far in March has left it at its strongest rate since August, and means it has outperformed all other major EM currencies this month. This is related... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Diverging policy paths lend support to the krone Price pressures generally remained subdued in Switzerland and the Nordic economics in February. Core inflation is still stubbornly low in Switzerland and while it is higher in Sweden, it has now been... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany stuck in the slow lane A slow start to the year, combined with a deterioration in prospects for both export growth and household consumption, has prompted us to cut our forecast for economic growth in Germany to only 0.5%... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s cedi: Worst now behind us The dramatic weakening of Ghana’s cedi has been driven by a decline in investor sentiment, and does not reflect a deterioration in underlying macro fundamentals. Given strong growth and supportive... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in rates won’t trigger a surge in house prices A decline in mortgage interest rates from the start of 2012 was an important factor behind the rise in house prices in recent years. But we don’t think the upcoming drop in interest rates will have... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver prices likely to rebound Despite weaker industrial demand, we expect silver prices to rally by more than 10% this year as safe-haven demand returns and mine production falters. 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q4) GDP growth in Sri Lanka slowed sharply in the final quarter of last year, and although we expect growth to pick up a little over the coming quarters, a combination of tighter fiscal and monetary... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could QE bring even lower property yields? The odds have tipped towards the ECB re-starting its QE programme next year. This would increase the likelihood of further reductions in euro-zone prime property yields, but, as yet, this expected... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak industrial production points to lower prices The recent upturn in most commodity prices appears at odds with the negative trend in global manufacturing. Of course, supply factors could explain the divergence, and probably do in the case of oil... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read