UK Housing Market Update Will prime central London continue to struggle? Prime central London (PCL) house prices held up better than we expected in 2018, though the underlying trend remained weak. The outlook is unlikely to change in 2019 with economic uncertainty... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa slowdown, SARB, no word from Buhari Data published this week showed continued weakness in South Africa’s economy at the start of the year which, coming alongside soft inflation, may bring interest rate cuts onto the table sooner than we... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rising prime retail yields to go against the flow Near zero low risk-free rates will support Western European office and industrial pricing, despite a softer rental growth outlook. In contrast, with the retail sector also dealing with structural... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Brexit still holding the MPC back As the Brexit circus rumbles on the Monetary Policy Committee’s interest rate announcement on Thursday 21st March will not receive the usual attention. After all, the Committee will keep a low profile... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines budget deadlock, Indonesia election Economic growth in the Philippines is likely to slow unless the 2019 budget is approved soon, but the cuts the government has announced to its GDP growth forecast for this year look too severe. We... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel set to lose its star performer tag Nickel prices have surged since the start of this year, but we think that this leaves the metal particularly vulnerable to the global economic slowdown and higher output. 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM rally stalling, likely to go into reverse The rally in EM assets of the past few months has started to falter in recent days on the back of some poor economic data around the world, and signs that a US-China trade deal may be further away... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Mar.) The latest data show that OPEC has more than met its production quota, albeit mostly down to Saudi Arabia. However, with non-OPEC oil supply increasing and demand growth waning, we still think that... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Limited upside for euro-zone equities if no-deal Brexit is avoided 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to hike, but rates on hold elsewhere The Norges Bank is all but certain to increase interest rates to 1.0% at its policy meeting next week. In contrast, we expect policymakers in Switzerland and Iceland to leave rates unchanged at their... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) The drop in new home sales in January came from an upwardly revised December figure, so sales haven’t lost too much momentum going into 2019. Looking ahead, a slowing economy argues against a strong... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Thailand: outlook unlikely to improve after the election Thailand’s upcoming election will do little to improve the economic outlook. Whoever wins, the shift towards economic populism is likely to continue, delaying reforms needed to raise productivity... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE’s property slump, Oman’s need for a bailout Talk of banks in the UAE needing to lengthen the maturity of real estate loans may be the first sign that the country’s property slump is starting to cause fresh debt problems. Elsewhere, Oman may not... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland’s GDP (Q4 2018) Ireland’s Q4 GDP data, released today, show that the economy slowed towards the end of last year. But timelier indicators suggest that, despite rising uncertainty about Brexit and the wider euro-zone... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy has weak start to 2019 Activity data released today showed that South Africa’s economy faltered in January, but we think that conditions will improve later this year. Weak growth and low inflation will add to pressure for a... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb.) The new buyer enquiries balance fell to a post-crisis low in February, but we doubt that a crash is imminent. That view is consistent with surveyors’ expectations, which anticipate a small improvement... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
