Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Interest rates to be lower for longer The more dovish stance adopted by the ECB at its monetary policy meeting this week suggests that the upside risks to Nordic and Swiss currencies – particularly the franc – will intensify. Indeed, if... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Market implications of the outlook for ECB policy We remain more dovish than investors about the outlook for interest rates in the euro-zone. But we still think that “risky” assets there will perform badly this year, as slowing global growth takes... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit crunch time Next week is likely to be the biggest week for Brexit since the referendum, with crucial Parliamentary votes likely to give us some steer on where the UK is headed. Of course, it is perfectly possible... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Chilean inflation data for February of 1.7% y/y (down from 1.8% y/y in January), means that we are increasingly comfortable with our forecast for rates to be left on hold at 3... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish lira stumbles, Russian and CEE rates The Turkish lira has been one of the worst-performing EM currencies this week which, in part at least, seems to reflect investors no longer buying the central bank’s hawkish rhetoric. Elsewhere... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP governor hints at cuts, rising risk of Thai unrest An early rate cut in the Philippines is looking increasingly likely after the country’s new central bank governor, Benjamin Diokno, told a news conference on Friday that “given the decelerating... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s trade not all bad news for commodities China’s imports and exports dropped sharply in February. Admittedly, some of the plunge can be explained by the shift in timing of the Lunar New Year holiday, but we expect trade to remain weak in the... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Trade considerations, services strength The decision by the US to scrap the preferential trade status granted to several Indian products has grabbed headlines this week. But the direct impact of the measures will be small. India’s exports... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: Investment slump, power prices prolong Eskom pain Growth figures out this week showed that South Africa’s economy slowed at the end of last year. But we think that improved confidence will boost investment this year, causing growth to pick up. The... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Feb.) The February trade data are downbeat, even accounting for seasonal distortions. Tariffs are weighing on shipments to the US. But broader weakness in global demand means that, even if Trump and Xi... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What could the SNB do to ease policy further? The more dovish than expected stance adopted by the ECB at today’s monetary policy meeting supports our view that the SNB will also keep rates lower for longer. And if the euro-zone economy... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade contracted most since financial crisis in Q4 World trade weakened much more than we had anticipated last year. As the global economy loses further momentum this year, world trade growth is likely to continue to be sluggish, regardless of whether... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Amlo’s first 100 days Sunday marks Andrés Manuel López’s Obrador’s (Amlo’s) first 100 days as Mexico’s president, and some of his unorthodox policies appear to have resulted in a 50-60bp risk premium on sovereign debt... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Probability of more QE this year is rising The ECB did more than expected today, announcing another round of TLTROs and pledging to leave policy rates on hold at least until next year. But with economic growth and inflation likely to remain... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market uncertainty intensifies Conditions in the housing market have seen no improvement over the last month. Indeed, the data suggest that new buyer enquiries deteriorated at its fastest rate since the financial crisis. Looking... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
