Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s central bank on hold but rates to rise this year Although the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today, it expressed concern about rising inflation expectations ahead of wage negotiations later this year. So domestic inflationary... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update After Mexico, could a US-China deal follow? This week’s agreement between the US and Mexico has raised hopes that the US and China could also resolve their dispute. But the agreement with Mexico underlines how much hangs on whether President... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update UK-Africa trade ties will remain limited UK Prime Minister Theresa May is using a visit to Africa to promote economic ties with the region, but we doubt that trade links between Britain and Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen over the coming... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM corporate credit spreads have a lot further to rise Despite rising since January, emerging market (EM) corporate credit spreads remain very tight by past standards and relative to those of their counterparts elsewhere in the world. We think that this... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Weak consumer demand to drag on gold prices The latest trade data for India and China show divergent trends in imports of gold by the two largest consumers. China’s gold imports dropped on signs that the economy is slowing, while India’s... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The rebound in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure to a 17-year high of 133.4 in August is primarily a reflection of the current strength of the economy, but with the expectations index... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US-Mexico trade deal not the end of wider protectionism worries 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jun.) According to the Case-Shiller index, house price growth continued to slow in June. The rise of 6.2% y/y was the smallest annual gain since November 2017. The recent moderation in mortgage applications... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Germany’s current account surplus ever shrink? Germany’s current account surplus is likely to narrow over the coming years, but we suspect that it will remain very large. So there is little chance that economic rebalancing in Germany will help to... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US trade deal a win for Mexico The preliminary bilateral trade deal between Mexico and the US, announced yesterday, is a far cry from the radical overhaul of the two countries’ trading relationship that many had feared. Tighter... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Policymakers comfortable with weaker rupee The rupee’s slide against the US dollar this year has been met with frenzied commentary in some quarters. But policymakers look comfortable with the weaker rupee. In particular, the RBI appears to... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi inflation edged up in July on the back of stronger food inflation, although underlying price pressures eased. We expect that headline inflation will rise a little further over the rest of this... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Is the Governor warming to the idea of raising rates? Although the Reserve Bank of Australia will once again leave interest rates at 1.5% at the policy meeting on Tuesday 4th September, we sense that Governor Lowe has started to send some subtle signals... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly New franc forecasts, Swedish election heats up The upward pressure on the Swiss franc eased this week and our forecasts for monetary policy in Switzerland suggest that the currency will continue to depreciate against the euro over the next couple... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil jumps on supply concerns The price of Brent rose by around 6% this week, reflecting concerns about the negative impact of US sanctions on Iran’s production. The mid-week trade talks between the US and China were inconclusive... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed ignoring the noise Amid all the political drama of the past week, the clear message from Fed officials is that they remain committed to their plans to continue raising interest rates. That’s unlikely to change until... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
