Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Nordic central banks gear up for interest rate rises Strong economic growth is fuelling inflationary pressures in both Norway and Sweden. So we expect the Norges Bank to follow through on its guidance and raise rates by 25bp next month. We doubt that... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls to seal deal for September rate hike We estimate that growth in non-farm payroll employment rebounded to 180,000 in August. Along with signs that diminishing slack is starting to push wage growth gradually higher, that would seal the... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisian dinar falls further, Lebanon in the spotlight The Tunisian dinar has continued to decline over the past week and we think that the currency has further to fall. However, any moves should be fairly gradual. Elsewhere, the recent widening of... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2018) The strong pace of growth in the second quarter, and a NAFTA deal if it materialises by Friday, will embolden policymakers. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada is still likely to keep to its commitment... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asian currencies remain resilient Asian currencies have continued to hold up pretty well over the past few weeks despite the turmoil in EM currency markets. Since the start of August, the Korean won and the Thai baht have actually... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt: what are the crunch points? The Argentine government’s announcement that it wants to draw on more of its IMF bailout package reflects the harsh reality of large upcoming FX debt repayments, especially in November. But the... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.) July’s household borrowing figures provided signs that consumers’ appetite for unsecured borrowing is waning. But the fact that households remain upbeat about their financial position suggests that... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs start Q3 on weaker note EM GDP growth appears to have been stronger over Q2 than it was in Q1. However, the monthly activity figures show that EMs were losing momentum at the end of Q2 and started Q3 on a weaker footing. 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed pressing on with rate hikes, others well behind Fed officials look increasingly confident in their plans to raise interest rates twice more this year while ECB officials are on course to end their asset purchases by December. Next year, though, we... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Why have US drilling rigs plateaued? The relationship between the number of US drilling rigs and oil prices appears to have broken down recently as drilling rigs have failed to rise in line with oil prices. This Energy Watch will examine... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) Our weighted-average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) fell in August, adding to the evidence that GDP growth across the region has continued to weaken. 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Surging steel output to lead to lower prices World Steel Association data, released earlier this week, showed a 5.8% y/y increase in global steel output in July, driven by higher production in China, India, the US and the EU. We expect this... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Aug.) Although the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment fell again in August, it remains at a high level and consistent with fairly strong growth. But underlying price pressures are building very... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jul.) Net lending to property increased slightly in July, but to a lesser extent than lending to the total economy. Further, lending for development showed no signs of improvement. 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jul.) July saw a 0.9% drop in mortgage approvals for house purchase, partly reversing the gains seen in May and June. Looking ahead, with house prices high and interest rates set to rise further, lending is... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Turkey worries rock South Africa, less effect elsewhere Fears that financial turbulence in Turkey were the first sign of broader problems rumbled markets across the emerging world in August, with South Africa one of the hardest-hit. The country has Africa... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
