Energy Update Does the Aramco float matter for oil prices? Whether the Saudi Aramco float actually happens or not should make little difference to the oil market. After all, it is now clear that Saudi Arabia is no longer intent on artificially boosting prices... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How does the latest EM sell-off stack up? Asset prices in Turkey and Argentina have fallen dramatically in recent weeks, while the moves in other countries’ markets look similar to previous EM sell-offs over the past decade. It’s still very... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Where is the Swiss franc headed? Even after its recent rise, we still think that the Swiss franc will weaken against the euro over the coming years as the Swiss National Bank lags the ECB in tightening monetary policy. But sustained... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lower supply to support aluminium prices next year After surging to a seven-year high in mid-April on the back of the US Treasury’s decision to impose sanctions on Russian aluminium producer, Rusal, the price of aluminium has since collapsed. While we... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash manufacturing PMIs extend downward trend Preliminary business surveys for August point to a further loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector, but the composite surveys suggest that GDP growth is holding up reasonably well. Meanwhile... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / New Home Sales (Jun./Jul.) New home sales declined for the second month in a row in July, with a 1.7% m/m drop taking sales to a 10-month low. Housing demand is faltering as buyers have been put off by the lack of affordable... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further slowdown ahead Growth only slowed a touch in Emerging Asia last quarter, but weakening export demand and tighter monetary policy mean that the region’s economies are likely to cool further over the next year or so. 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Mexico inflation to head in opposite directions Inflation in both Brazil and Mexico has been a bit higher than we had anticipated over the past few weeks, but we think the broad trend over the next year or so will be up in Brazil, and down in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports still lagging behind global demand The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 17-month low of $0.6bn in June, thanks to a 4.1% monthly rise in exports and a small fall in imports. But both moves were largely due to big swings in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ethanol is not the answer for US corn US corn farmers face considerable uncertainty over the potential for exports given rising global protectionism. What’s more, if export volumes dip, the US ethanol industry is unlikely to absorb any... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO on hold, Bahrain debt fears ease Reports this week suggest that Saudi policymakers may be close to shelving the Aramco IPO, which would reinforce concerns that the country’s commitment to the Vision 2030 reforms is waning. Elsewhere... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Risk of “no deal” weighs on the pound The pound has fallen by almost 10% against the US dollar over the past four months, leaving it at $1.29. Much of this reflects broad-based dollar strength – the pound has slipped by much less against... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Economic implications of the Kerala floods The flooding in Kerala is among the worst in recent memory, and has already had a devastating human cost. But from an economic perspective at least, the damage should be manageable. 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s small increase in the euro-zone PMI suggests that the region’s economy is continuing to perform well in Q3, which will reassure the ECB that it is right to be normalising monetary policy very... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is London’s price slump spreading? The weakness in London’s housing market has been accompanied by a rise in months of unsold stock. Something similar appears to be happening in the South East and we have trimmed our forecasts as a... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
