Capital Daily Treasury yield curve inversion is probably only a matter of time 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Coming to a halt? The growth of world trade volumes seems to have stalled in the first half of the year. However, some more timely data and survey evidence suggest that it should pick up again in the second half of the... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly US tariffs, Greece and Italy all pose risks Greece’s exit from its bailout on Monday was widely hailed by European policymakers as a sign of success, but its problems are far from over. Meanwhile, comments from President Trump emphasised that... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico bowing to US, Lula support growing A “handshake deal” between Mexico and the US on auto trade rules is apparently close, but several hurdles must be cleared before a new Nafta treaty is agreed. Elsewhere, Brazilian markets finally seem... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly National team falls flat, pork jitters, policy “irrigation” The benchmark Shanghai Composite equity index this week returned to the low point reached in the equity collapse of early 2016. Official efforts to shore up the market have proved predictably... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Spending growth set to slow Consumer spending growth appears to have rebounded to about 2% annualised in the second quarter. But with real wage gains set to slow further, even that fairly-moderate growth rate seems unlikely to... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) Despite the decline in headline orders, the July durable goods data suggest that business equipment investment growth is set to rebound in the third quarter. That provides further reason to think that... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble hit by sanctions, MNB to change tack The Russian ruble came under pressure this week as investors worried that US sanctions will be ramped up. For now, though, we don’t think that this will have a significant near-term impact on the... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Public finances improve, retail sales lose their shine Amid the Brexit gloom and doom this week there was at least some positive news for the Chancellor. The continued strong performance of the public finances in July suggests that he will be able to... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT signals rate hike, Malaysia pushes back on BRI Stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP figures this week and the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) increasingly hawkish rhetoric suggest a 25bp rate hike is likely at its next meeting on 19 th September. However, with... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Investment activity slumps The value of commercial property deals disappointed in July. At just £3.5bn, the value of investment was 12% lower than a year ago. The weakness was broad-based. In particular, the value of office... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Jul.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase dipped in July, ending a three-month streak of gains. But the big picture is that lending has seen no sustained improvement since 2013. And with high house prices... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to IMF, Rand wobbles, Zambia holds rates Few details about Angola’s request for IMF aid have been released, but any deal would boost investor confidence. We revised down our rand/dollar exchange rate forecasts this week. A tweet from... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey in crisis Turkey plunged into a full-blown currency crisis this month following the imposition of US sanctions and an absence of (or refusal to pursue) an orthodox policy response. Inflation, which was already... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation set to pick up Inflation has been held back by plunging mobile phone costs and competition from online retailers. The main factor, however, are deeply engrained deflationary expectations among households and firms... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly New forecasts for the rupee The rupee has stabilised over the past week or so, but it remains very close to an all-time low against the US dollar. With sentiment towards EMs unlikely to improve dramatically any time soon, we... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
