Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia already slipping on fiscal reforms Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement yesterday that the government will soften a planned rise in the retirement age wasn’t altogether surprising, but it marks part of a broader slippage on... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF & Swedish Econ. Tendency Indicator (Aug.) August’s surveys suggest that while economic growth is slowing in Switzerland, it remains very strong in Sweden. This is primarily due to differing conditions in the manufacturing sector, which might... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q2) & Building Approvals (Jul.) Just 18 months after it got going, the recovery in private investment appears to be running out of steam. This partly explains why we estimate that GDP in the second quarter may have risen by just 0.5... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) While retail sales values edged up in July, sales volumes declined. The upshot is that private consumption started Q3 on a soft note. 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Turkey entering a steep recession The latest Turkish activity data suggest that the plunge in the lira since May, and the associated sharp tightening of financial conditions, has tipped the economy into recession. Things are only... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell last week due to a drop in net imports, despite a slump in demand from refineries. Another slight decline in US production excluding Alaska is concerning, but we think... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Are rising rates already weighing on the economy? With the fiscal stimulus acting as a strong tailwind, economic growth has been unusually strong over the past few months but, below the surface, signs are emerging that rising interest rates have... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Relief for EM currencies proves fleeting, more pressure to come 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How flexible is the Fed really? In his Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell revived Greenspan-era arguments that policy should be flexible and follow a “risk management” approach, but we doubt this amounts to much in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Efforts to prop up infrastructure investment falling short Although fiscal policy has become more proactive lately, a reluctance to turn to off-budget borrowing means that policymakers aren’t yet doing enough to arrest the slowdown in infrastructure... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank on pause ahead of October rate rise Even if NAFTA negotiations are concluded successfully this week, the Bank of Canada is likely to wait until October before it raises interest rates. 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy accelerated at the end of Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that rising oil output supported a pick-up in growth in Saudi Arabia at the end of Q2. We expect that the economy will perform better than most anticipate over the next twelve... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey entering a steep recession The latest Turkish activity data suggest that the plunge in the lira since May, and the associated sharp tightening of financial conditions, has tipped the economy into recession. Things are only... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery remains on track Frontier financial markets have endured a torrid 2018, but this hasn’t been accompanied by a deterioration in the hard activity data. Admittedly, growth in the largest frontier economy, Nigeria... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in Chile and Peru to hold up well The surge in GDP growth in Q2 to more than 5% in Chile and Peru probably marks the peak in both countries’ economic cycle. But there is still some spare capacity left. And, as a result, we expect that... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Helsinki returns slowing, but still above the pack In the middle of last year, Helsinki offices stood out as a strong late-cycle play. But with the positive yield gap to Stockholm now closed, that opportunity has passed. Nevertheless, in the absence... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
