India Data Response GDP (Q2) Indian GDP growth beat most expectations in Q2 and is likely to continue expanding rapidly over the coming months, supported by looser fiscal policy ahead of next year’s general election. 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q2) The 0.2% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q2 was a decent outturn given the disruptions to the economy caused by the truck drivers’ strike in late May. And growth is likely to strengthen in the second... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EM external financing risks The sell-off in EM currencies has cast the spotlight onto external vulnerabilities in the emerging world, although there are important nuances to take into account. In this Update, we take a closer... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don’t bank on Brexit breakthrough, consumer outlook dim The EU Chief Brexit Negotiator, Michel Barnier’s suggestion that the EU is ready to offer the UK a bespoke Brexit deal has provided some reassurance that the UK is not heading for a disruptive “no... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines to scrap rice quotas, new tax in Malaysia The Philippines looks to be on the verge of passing legislation to allow in more rice imports. If the bill passes, it should lead to a sharp drop in inflation and would reduce the pressure for further... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina back in crisis The sell-off in the Argentine peso this month gathered pace after the government’s impromptu request to draw down more of its IMF bailout. Rather than soothing market tensions, this reinforced... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish inflation to soar, Ukraine on the rocks Turkish CPI figures due on Monday are likely to show that inflation rose to its highest level since 2003, but government pressure means that this is unlikely to prompt the central bank to hike... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) August’s small decline in euro-zone inflation won’t deter the ECB from ending its net asset purchases this year. But core inflation is still not on a sustained upward trend, so the Bank will be in no... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Aug.) House price growth cooled to 2% in August, down from 3.2% in January. And with no sign of a pick-up in demand or sales, we expect price gains slow a little further by the end of the year. 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The latest GfK/NOP confidence survey suggested that consumers were in fairly good spirits in August. And while Brexit uncertainty may weigh more heavily on confidence in the coming months, a gradual... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Finland & Denmark GDP (Q2) Denmark had a weak first half of the year, but timelier evidence points to slightly faster growth in Q3. Meanwhile, Finland’s economy continues to perform well. 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian growth slows, MTN fined, Theresa May in Africa Nigeria’s economy slowed in Q2, despite stronger non-oil growth. More recently, an unexpectedly big fine imposed on MTN this week will raise questions about the country’s regulatory environment. The... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Little upside for retail warehouse rental growth After growing around 1% y/y for the past three years, annual retail warehouse rental value growth slowed sharply in Q2. Some recovery in rental value growth is expected as real wage growth has turned... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are Chinese tariffs on US LNG a big deal? It looks increasingly likely that the Chinese government will levy a 25% tariff on imports of US liquefied natural gas (LNG). But we suspect that any tariff will have only a limited impact on prices... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the Turkish lira? The fresh sharp falls in the Turkish lira this week reflect growing concerns about the state of domestic policymaking and the health of the banking sector. Monetary tightening or an improvement in... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
