Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP & Switzerland IP (Q2) The slowdown in Norway’s housing market is weighing on the economy. But other sectors are performing much better, so this won’t be enough to stop the Norges Bank from raising interest rates next month... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Markets underestimating scope for rate cuts in 2020 Both the consensus and financial markets are coming around to our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2020, but we still think they are underestimating how soon and how fast the Fed’s policy... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Markets underestimating scope for rate cuts in 2020 Both the consensus and financial markets are coming around to our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2020, but we still think they are underestimating how soon and how fast the Fed’s policy... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump knows he can’t really influence Fed policy President Donald Trump’s recent public criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell is a clever attempt to pre-emptively blame the Fed and its interest rate hikes for any future downturn in the US economy... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The longest bull market in US equities may end in 2019 The S&P 500 has not fallen by more than 20% since it began to climb after the last recession. As a result, the index has remained in a “bull market” that is about to become the longest ever... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How much further can German office values rise? Office capital values in Germany appear to be on an inexorable upward path. Although a sharp correction seems unlikely, there are good reasons to believe that they will peak in 2018. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell back last week as refinery demand remained strong and net imports dropped back. However, the rise in gasoline and product stocks does point to weaker consumer demand... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) The fourth month in a row of falling existing home sales has left them at a 2½ year low. On the supply side, a lack of affordable inventory is constraining sales. But demand is also falling back over... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Economics still matters more than politics for the S&P 500 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Revising down our rand forecasts The rand’s recent falls have prompted us to downgrade our end of year forecasts. We now think that the currency will slip from 14.4/$ to 15/$ by the end of 2018 and to 15.5/$ by the end of 2019. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) While retail sales values and volumes both fell in June, over the second quarter as a whole growth rebounded. However, the slowdown in housing market activity and rising interest rates will limit... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Emerging markets not a major risk for the Fed or ECB Even if emerging market assets remain under pressure this year, we don’t expect the crises in Argentina and Turkey to be replicated in other emerging economies. Meanwhile, domestic conditions in the... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) July’s stronger-than-expected inflation was almost entirely due to sharp rise in fuel costs. Core inflation remained stable, and we think that the SARB will keep policy on hold this year. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) The strong batch of Polish activity data for July suggests that the economy continued to grow at around 5% y/y at the start of Q3. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth weakens Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growth slowed in July to the weakest pace in five months. We think the slowdown has further to run. The US-China trade conflict will be a drag on... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update SPR could cushion loss of oil from Iran The sale of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), announced yesterday, is not large enough to have a significant impact on global oil prices. That said, given the hefty size of the... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
