Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Political uncertainty won’t derail Swedish economy Following September’s general election, Sweden looks set for a period of political uncertainty that might dent economic activity. But this is likely to prove temporary and we doubt that it would... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The slowdown in narrow money growth reflects the Fed’s efforts to shrink its balance sheet and the rise in interest rates, with the latter increasing the opportunity cost of holding funds in non... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update State firms step in to counter private-sector outflows Private firms and individuals may have pulled capital out of China in recent weeks in response to concerns about the renminbi, trade tensions and the economy. But intervention by state banks and firms... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Inflation to drop back towards 2% Headline inflation might surpass 3% in August, but by the end of the year it is likely to be little more than 2%. And with core inflation stable, the Bank is unlikely to pick up the pace of its... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment to drop by 15% this year The latest data suggest that commercial property investment for the second half of the year is off to a poor start. With investment in the retail and industrial sectors unlikely to keep pace with 2017... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update EM turmoil won’t derail the Fed’s plans There is no reason to believe that the latest bout of turbulence in emerging markets will prompt the Fed to reconsider future interest rate hikes, since the economic and financial market spillovers... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Activity data suggest weak growth in Q2 GDP figures due next week will probably show that growth in Nigeria remained weak in Q2. We think that growth was probably about 2% y/y, essentially in line with the previous two quarters. 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycle continues EM central banks continued to tighten monetary policy in August. Policymakers in Argentina and Indonesia raised interest rates to support their currencies amid fears of contagion from the crisis in... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB purchases of Italian bonds might rise in October We suspect that, due to technical reasons, the ECB will increase its purchases of Italian government bonds in October. This might help to prevent yields from shooting up if Italy’s Government submits... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jul.) July’s public finances figures leave borrowing on course to come in comfortably below the OBR’s forecast this year, suggesting that the Chancellor should have room to manoeuvre in the Autumn Budget. 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Monetary policy prospects to support the dollar until 2019 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The surge in Chilean GDP growth to 5.3% y/y in Q2 was driven mainly by a pick-up in domestic demand, and is likely to mark the peak in the cycle. Growth is likely to soften gradually from here. And... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jul.) Global aluminium output was up by nearly 3% y/y in July, owing to higher production in China and India. We had warned that this could happen as the prospect of China’s anti-pollution winter cuts and... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf boosted by higher oil output Oil production figures for July, the first that should capture the impact of revisions to the OPEC deal in June, support our view that growth in the Gulf will strengthen in the coming quarters. Oil... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s debt repayment crunch Turkey’s economy has so far managed to come through the worst of the plunge in the lira without suffering acute financial stress. That said, the banking sector faces a large external debt repayment... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
