Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July 2023) The Brazilian July mid-month inflation reading of 3.2% y/y suggests that price pressures are weaker than we and most others had thought. While we still think it’s most likely that the central bank... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Bank of England – Another 50bps hike or back to 25bps? 1691071200 Analysts are split on whether the BoE will repeat June’s 50bps rate hike at the August meeting or revert to the 25bps hikes now favoured by the Fed and the ECB.
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs set for rate cuts, despite hikes in DMs While the Fed and the ECB are set to hike interest rates this week, subsiding inflation means that the upcoming EM central bank meetings will tilt towards monetary easing. And we expect that the EM... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response Politburo Meeting (Jul. 23) The readout of the Politburo’s quarterly meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It struck a dovish tone but fell short of delivering any major new announcements. 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to pivot in H1 next year The Fed is almost certain to hike its policy rate by 25bp to between 5.25% and 5.50% at next week’s FOMC meeting, but we increasingly believe that will prove to be the peak. Despite the ‘higher for... 21st July 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE last to halt hikes and last to cut We think UK core inflation will ease to 2% by the end of 2024 as the effects of the rises in interest rates are felt. But the UK’s more persistent labour supply shortfall than elsewhere suggests this... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal pressures, Turkey’s policy shift on thin ice A raft of comments from senior policymakers at the Russian Ministry of Finance this week highlight the pressures that the public finances are under. For now, policymakers are responding by tightening... 21st July 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s sticking plaster, EU trade deal, rate cuts June trade figures out this week reinforced how perilous Argentina's balance of payments situation is, but officials continue to opt for temporary fixes rather than addressing the root problem - the... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to hike again, Spain goes to the polls Data released this week support our view that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q2. Meanwhile, France’s government presented a plan to reduce its budget deficit next year but its plans are likely to... 21st July 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update The US yield curve could stay inverted for a while yet The Treasury yield curve has been inverted for a long time by past standards, but we think it could remain so until next year even if there’s a recession in the interim. 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand inflation will remain higher for longer The fall in New Zealand’s headline inflation rate in Q2 largely reflected base effects, with underlying price pressures remaining strong. Accordingly, we think inflation will return to the RBNZ’s... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read
