Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Jun.) The sharp decline in retail sales in June suggests that sales volumes fell for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. With the RBA sounding increasingly concerned about the outlook for household spending... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi sporting focus, Egypt dollar draw, Tunisia loan Saudi Arabia’s Pro League went from the back pages to the front pages this week after Al-Hilal record bid for PSG’s Kylian Mbappé. While the news has put renewed attention on the Kingdom’s sporting... 27th July 2023 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch 25bps hike and peak in sight We think the Bank of England will revert to raising interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), from 5.00% to 5.25%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 3rd August rather than repeating June’s 50bps hike... 27th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update What would make the SARB hike again? Policymakers at the South African Reserve Bank are keen to emphasise that their work to tame the “inflation monster” is not over, leaving open the possibility of additional monetary tightening. The... 27th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed tightening cycle done As everyone expected, the Fed increased its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, taking the fed funds target range to between 5.25% and 5.50% but, while officials are possibly still eyeing one... 26th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB won’t start cutting rates until H2 2024 Tighter monetary policy has had a big impact on financial conditions in the euro-zone, but we think its effect on activity is still in its early stages. Even if the region falls into a mild recession... 26th July 2023 · 20 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 26th July 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 26th July 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending data point to recession Data released this week show that tighter monetary policy has led to a sharp slowdown in money and lending growth, consistent on past form with falling GDP. Together with the latest business surveys... 26th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Core inflation still far lower than elsewhere Comparing the proper inflation gauges reveals that core inflation in Japan remains far lower than elsewhere. And with most of the recent pick-up in core inflation reflecting soaring imports costs, the... 26th July 2023 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will deliver at least one more 25bp hike With inflation weakening faster than the Reserve Bank of Australia has anticipated, the Bank may well conclude that it has tightened policy enough to return inflation to target. However, with the... 26th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Jun./Q2 2023) 26th July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Gilt yields closing the gap Our forecast that in late 2024 and 2025 the Bank of England will cut interest rates further than investors expect suggests that UK gilt yields will fall and close the current gap with US yields... 25th July 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s judicial reforms present key downside risks The Israeli government’s decision to press ahead with its controversial judicial reforms won’t necessarily cause foreign investment into Israel to dry up, but the direction of policymaking threatens... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (July) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) announced another 100bp cut to its one-day quick deposit rate (the key policy rate at the moment) today, to 15.00%, and this is likely to be followed by 100bp cuts at each... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
