Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 23) 5th December 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Swedish krona’s decade-long fall may be ending Our view about relative economic and interest rate prospects in Sweden and the euro-zone suggests that the Swedish krona’s recent rebound may prove durable. In fact, given how far below “fair value”... 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end next year Following a strong 2023, GDP growth is set to slow towards potential next year and the labour market will tread water for now. However, with the virtuous cycle between consumer prices and inflation... 4th December 2023 · 18 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s Messi of finances, job markets, Banxico to cut? The confirmation that Luis Caputo will be Argentina’s next economy minister reinforces our view that, while President-elect Javier Milei is likely to put the economy through shock therapy, it will be... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation won’t follow euro-zone to target in 2024 Investors increased their expectations for interest rate cuts by the ECB after November’s soft euro-zone inflation print this week, but in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) the latest... 1st December 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revising our ECB forecast, German fiscal space In light of this week’s data releases we are bringing forward our forecast for the first ECB rate cut to June next year and now think the deposit rate will fall from 4% currently to 3% by the end of... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Cooling labour market will be crucial for rate cuts The possibility that the labour market is tighter than it looked has placed a question mark over when the Bank of England will be able to cut interest rates. Our forecast for services inflation and... 1st December 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal boost, renminbi turnaround Government bond issuance has picked up recently but a sizeable chunk of the proceeds have yet to be spent. Local officials will be under pressure to deploy these funds as soon as possible, which could... 1st December 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Robust Q3 GDP, hard truths at COP28, RBI preview The activity data this week confirm that India’s economy is rude health and we now expect full-year GDP growth of 7.0% in 2023, with only a mild slowdown to 6.3% in 2024. A perennial downside risk to... 1st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Sluggish activity need not prevent BoJ from tightening Consumer spending probably isn't quite as weak as the retail sales would suggest and we still expect GDP to rebound this quarter. However, the continued weakness in new job openings suggests that the... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 23) GDP contracted in the third quarter and there are downside risks to the outlook. As house prices are falling again, household debt is elevated and high interest rates are still feeding through, the... 30th November 2023 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Our View: We are more dovish than investors regarding the amount of rate cuts that the Fed... 30th November 2023 · 1 min read
RBI Watch RBI unlikely to loosen policy until H2 2024 We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 8 th December. Further ahead, robust economic growth and upside risks to... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Nov. Flash Estimate) & GDP (Q3) The small fall in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in November is likely to mark the start of a slower phase for the disinflation process over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the... 30th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus What would convince the Bank of England to cut rates? The key indicators that have usually convinced the Bank of England to cut interest rates suggest the first cut could come in Q1 2024. That said, rates have risen to a lower peak than most models... 30th November 2023 · 14 mins read
