Europe Economics Update Tide turns towards rate cuts in Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan recently reiterated the Bank’s line that “we will not hesitate to tighten monetary policy further if necessary” but the actual question is whether policymakers will hesitate... 7th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico to lose their shine The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will fade in 2024 and growth over the next couple of years is likely to come in below consensus expectations... 7th December 2023 · 22 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing coming sooner than most expect Economic growth in most of Emerging Asia is likely to slow in the near term as weak global demand and high interest rates weigh on prospects. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to ease... 7th December 2023 · 32 mins read
Global Markets Update How the timing of rate cuts could affect bond yields We think that sovereign bond yields in most major economies will generally reach their troughs around the same time over the next year or so. But with the Bank of Japan seemingly set to buck the trend... 7th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank to acknowledge reality in the new year The Bank of Canada is clinging on to the idea that restrictive policy is still needed to get inflation back to 2%. Nonetheless, with core inflation pressures muted, GDP and house prices falling, and... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Despite soft landing, inflation rapidly normalising As core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates... 6th December 2023 · 16 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed will need to acknowledge plunging inflation soon With markets already convinced that the Fed’s tightening cycle is over, the focus at next week’s FOMC meeting will be on any clues as to how soon and how far rates will be cut. We suspect officials... 6th December 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold as expected today, and we think the easing cycle will remain on pause until the end of Q1. With the economy recovering and the... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch Bank to set the stage for 2024 rate cuts Policymakers will have no choice but to acknowledge next week that they may achieve their inflation target earlier than they had anticipated. Some may push back against expectations that the Bank will... 6th December 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stronger start, weaker end to 2024 China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 6th December 2023 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about 2024 answered We held two online Drop-In sessions today to discuss the outlook for 2024 and the risks to our forecasts. (See a recording here .) This Update summarises the answers to several of the questions that... 5th December 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economic Outlook Solid growth in run-up to election India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government spending, we think it will continue to hold up well ahead of next year’s general election. Given also... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Softer landing, but the runway is longer With higher interest rates taking longer to percolate through the economy, we now think the recession will be shallower and GDP growth will stay weak throughout all of 2024. It’s a softer landing for... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA is done hiking rates Given the high bar for further rate hikes, we’re more confident than ever that the Reserve Bank of Australia is done tightening policy. That said, there is a good chance that the cash rate will remain... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 23) 5th December 2023 · 2 mins read
