US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) As core PCE inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: first step towards defusing the ‘Leliq bomb’ At face value, the Argentine central bank’s (BCRA’s) decision yesterday to switch (and essentially lower) its policy rate seems at odds with the goal of tackling the country’s severe inflation problem... 19th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by 75bp again today (to 10.75%), and we think it will probably continue to lower rates at this pace over its next few meetings. However, we expect... 19th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Domestic price pressures are strong but easing Last week, Christine Lagarde cited high wage growth and “domestic inflation” as reasons for the ECB to keep interest rates high. While domestic price pressures are easing, it will take several months... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe in 2024 and an... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Negative interest rates will end in early-2024 The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today as widely anticipated. And while Governor Ueda is sounding more confident that 2% inflation will be sustained, we now expect the Bank of Japan to... 19th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Negative interest rates will end in early-2024 We are resending this publication because it was incorrectly sent as a Japan Rapid Response. The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today as widely anticipated. And while Governor Ueda is... 19th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little... 18th December 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Risks to our 2024 outlook There is considerable uncertainty surrounding our forecast that GDP will increase by 1.2% next year, but we have a relatively high conviction in our call that core PCE inflation will be very close to... 18th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be... 18th December 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions after the latest central bank meetings We recently held an online Drop-In session to discuss the December policy meetings and the outlook for monetary policy in the year ahead. (See a recording here.) This Update answers several of the... 18th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s belt tightening, Chile votes, LatAm & the Fed The fiscal tightening announced by Argentina's new administration this week is a step in the right direction but, with public discontent set to intensify, the government's commitment to fiscal... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed & markets catching up with inflation reality The Fed’s embrace of interest rate cuts next year is understandable when the latest data suggest that core PCE inflation is rapidly closing in on the 2% target. 15th December 2023 · 6 mins read
