Emerging Markets Economics Update EM current account risks have declined sharply A significant number of EMs that were running large current account deficits last year – including much of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Peru and Chile – have seen dramatic improvements in their... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Who will be the next RBA Governor? Press reports suggest that Department of Finance Secretary Jenny Wilkinson is the front-runner to become the next Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, though Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy... 5th July 2023 · 4 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to stay put, rate cuts only in Q1 2024 Having raised rates more aggressively than any other developed market central bank, we think the RBNZ’s tightening cycle is now over. The Bank has already succeeded in sending the economy into... 5th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Fall in inflation keeps BoK rate cut in play Further falls in inflation and the weakness of the most recent activity data support our view that the Bank of Korea (BoK) will shift to loosening monetary policy sooner than when others expect. 4th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tightening cycle not over yet The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep rates unchanged at 4.10% today suggests that interest rates may not rise all the way to 4.85% as we expect, but further tightening still seems likely. 4th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Jul. 23) 4th July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Jun. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 3rd July 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) Australia’s house-price rebound showed no signs of slowing in June. However, with the RBA set to swing its rate hammer a few more times, we’re sticking with our view that the upturn will prove... 3rd July 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Case for July hike less compelling There was plenty for the Bank of Canada to digest this week, with the data showing that core inflation fell in May even as GDP growth picked up strongly again. The resilience of economic activity... 30th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s survey results unlikely to prevent another hike The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys showed a broad decline in inflation expectations and are consistent with a renewed slowdown in GDP growth. The Bank could use those... 30th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB to cut, Argentina shifting towards the centre? The minutes to last week’s Brazilian central bank meeting made clear that the easing cycle will kick off in August, but they also confirmed our long held view that the easing cycle will be gradual –... 30th June 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE’s dovish tone is coming back to haunt it The hawkish comments made by the Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, at this week’s ECB annual Sintra gathering marks the latest step by the Bank to get on the front foot in its fight against... 30th June 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Households remain cautious, loan demand softens The PBOC’s survey of depositors suggests that the household savings rate declined further in Q2 but may still be well above pre-pandemic levels amid a renewed deterioration in consumer sentiment. A... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya restarts tightening, case for a hold in SA builds Kenya’s central bank hiked interest rates by 100bp, to 10.50%, at an unscheduled meeting this week. The move was pinned on an increase in inflation in May, but more than anything it seems to be a... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Higher ECB rate forecast, Riksbank eyes stronger SEK We are nudging up our peak ECB rate forecast in light of communications from ECB officials at Sintra and the latest economic data. We now see 25bp rate hikes in both July and September, taking the... 30th June 2023 · 8 mins read
