Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Further declines in GDP in the coming quarters mean that the economy is unlikely to grow at all... 28th December 2023 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 28th December 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed hawks can’t compete with plunging inflation This week saw a renewed attempt from some Fed officials to push back against market expectations for interest rate cuts but, with core PCE inflation running at an annualised pace of below 2% over the... 22nd December 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina deregulates, Brazil’s tax reform, rate cuts The past week saw a flurry of pro-growth reforms that could boost long-term growth prospects in parts of the region. In Argentina, President Milei took a first big step towards reducing the role of... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Three key calls for 2024 Our three key calls for 2024 are that growth will struggle, inflation will fall and that central banks will start to cut interest rates sooner than most expect. 22nd December 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU’s new fiscal rules, CNB joins the rate cutting club EU finance ministers agreed on a new set of fiscal rules this week, but this doesn’t change our view that concerns about public debt dynamics will grow in parts of Central and Eastern Europe over the... 22nd December 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policy still easing but not enough to hit growth target Although the Loan Prime Rates were left unchanged on Wednesday, today’s coordinated reductions in commercial bank deposit rates suggest the PBOC is still on an easing path. Meanwhile, a lower headline... 22nd December 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will wait until March before hiking rates Bank of Japan Governor Ueda indicated this week that the Bank won’t make any policy changes at its upcoming meeting in January as it wants to see the results of next year’s spring wage negotiations... 22nd December 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Czech National Bank (CNB) maintained a hawkish tone as it started its easing cycle today, but we still think that interest rates will be lowered by a further 300bp next year (from 6.75% to 3.75%)... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB behind the curve; new EU fiscal rules The latest core inflation data suggest that ECB policymakers will be forced to cut interest rates sooner than they currently think. Meanwhile, the EU has agreed new budget rules, but we suspect that... 21st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a 250bp interest rate hike, to 42.50%, at today’s meeting and didn’t close the door on the tightening cycle. We’ve now pencilled in one more 250bp hike at the... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia Housing Watch Although house prices in Melbourne have started to fall anew, we doubt that they are the canary in the coal mine. A persistent shortfall in housing supply should ensure that house prices across most... 21st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (December 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico... 20th December 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile and Colombia cut rates and more easing to come The decisions yesterday by Colombia’s central bank to kick off its easing cycle and by Chile’s to accelerate the pace of easing appears to have been driven by the substantial improvement in the... 20th December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Investors’ growing expectations that the US Fed will cut interest rates in March next year, as well as the recent soft UK wage and inflation data, have convinced investors that the Bank of England... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
