Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control won’t be tweaked At the upcoming meeting, the Bank of Japan will revise up its inflation forecasts amid early signs of stronger wage pressures. While that could open the door for a further widening of the tolerance... 21st July 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 20th July 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus How can Egypt unlock its economic potential? Egyptian policymakers’ commitment (or lack of) to economic orthodoxy continues to provide cause for concern and, while we don’t share the view that sovereign default is a serious risk, the near-term... 20th July 2023 · 19 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Is China in a balance sheet recession? 1690444800 Widespread angst around China’s growth outlook is fuelling a debate about whether the economy is in the kind of “balance sheet recession” that typified Japan’s experience in the 1990s.
US Fed Watch One last hurrah for the hawks Fed officials appear set on another 25bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting, which would take the fed funds rate to a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50%. But a run of softer inflation readings over the... 19th July 2023 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our US Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We still think the economy is more likely than not to fall into a mild recession later this year, as... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher Bank Rate forecast, but peak in sight Despite the softer tone of the CPI inflation data for June released earlier today, we have raised our forecast for the peak in Bank Rate. Rather than rise from 5.00% currently to a peak of 5.25%, we... 19th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed and ECB’s July meetings – and a lookahead to the BoE 1690466400 Rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank at their July meetings look like done deals – it’s the messaging accompanying those decisions that may prove key to what the banks deci
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the most recent data and developments as well as our latest analysis. Our View: India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil and, with... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 5.4% y/y in June brings it back within the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range for the first time since April 2022 and means... 19th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian consumer hits speed bump Provisional data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest that consumer spending slumped in Q2, as households sharply pared back discretionary expenditure. Faced with falling real incomes and... 19th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2023) Although price pressures are dissipating, they could prove stickier on the way down than we anticipate. As things stand, we don’t think the data are strong enough to prompt the RBNZ to resume its... 18th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How heavily are interest rates weighing on GDP? Splitting real GDP growth into the sectors most and least sensitive to interest rates provides some tentative evidence that higher interest rates are starting to weigh a bit more heavily on real... 18th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Switzerland’s inflation spectre slain Swiss inflation has fallen sharply this year to below 2% and we expect it to stay there for the foreseeable future. In contrast to the SNB’s view, we think second-round effects on wages will be quite... 18th July 2023 · 4 mins read
