EM Markets Chart Pack Toning down our optimism about EM assets & currencies We have become more pessimistic about the outlook for emerging market (EM) assets and currencies as we now expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise further over the next two years. 1st April 2021 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We forecast higher yields, a stronger $ & gains in equities We now think that 10-year government bond yields in most developed markets (DMs) will rise further. However, we think that they will climb more rapidly in the US than elsewhere in the developed world... 31st March 2021 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Taking stock of our asset allocation views In light of a raft of recent forecast changes, this Update presents the latest returns projections of our Asset Allocation service for the next couple of years. We think six points are worth... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for EM assets and currencies We have recently revised up our end-21 and end-22 projections for the US ten-year Treasury yield, which has prompted us to revise down our forecasts for emerging market (EM) assets and currencies. 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Denmark charts new course as the SNB steams ahead While lockdowns are being tightened and/or extended in much of mainland Europe, the attention in Denmark is shifting towards easing restrictions, which should allow activity there to rebound sooner... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore loosens restrictions, new markets forecasts Singapore announced a further loosening of containment measures this week but given that social distancing is no longer a major drag on the economy, they are unlikely to provide much of a boost to the... 26th March 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Renminbi turning a corner The renminbi has gained 9% against the US dollar since last May. But the factors that underpinned this appreciation have faded. With US yields moving in the dollar’s favour and China’s economic... 26th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up our forecast for the US dollar We now expect that the US dollar will strengthen somewhat over the next couple of years as the US economy outperforms and its policy mix diverges from that in most other major economies. 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly NPL floodgates open, new FX forecasts, state elections With the Supreme Court this week lifting its ban on banks classifying delinquent loans as non-performing, the last major extra-ordinary banking sector measure has been unwound and recorded NPLs are... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Capital Flows Monitor Portfolio outflows from several EMs have intensified over recent weeks as fears over a re-run of the “Taper Tantrum” appear to be playing on investors’ minds. But outflows are currently much smaller... 15th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap SDR allocation no panacea for distressed frontiers A fresh allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), if implemented, would provide a welcome boost to the depleted foreign exchange reserves of some distressed frontier economies. But an... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: another unconvincing devaluation The reported (but unconfirmed) devaluation of one of Nigeria’s exchange rates would help to improve the public finances, but it would keep already strong price pressures elevated. We doubt that the... 3rd March 2021 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Rotation in equity markets may have further to run While equity markets came under pressure towards the end of the month, they generally weathered February’s roughly 30bp rise in the 10-year US TIPS yield quite well, with most major indices still... 2nd March 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
Canada Economics Update We expect oil to be the key driver for the loonie Given our latest forecast for oil prices, we now expect the Canadian dollar to rise further in 2021 than we previously thought, but to drop back a bit in 2022. 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Rising government bond yields and currency/equity correlations As developed market government bond yields have risen, they have become a more important driver of currency markets than was the case last year. One interesting feature of the two brief equity market... 25th February 2021 · 5 mins read
