EM Markets Chart Pack EM currencies likely to weaken; Chilean peso an exception Optimism about an imminent resolution to the trade war between the US and China and subsiding protests in Latin America have supported EM currencies over the past month. But, barring a few exceptions... 11th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2020 We think that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand will fall short of expectations, forcing both the RBNZ and the RBA to cut interest rates more sharply than most expect. The consensus is that... 10th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: peso decline to resume next year The peso has rebounded over the past year due in large part to a sharp narrowing of the current account deficit. But with the deficit set to widen again next year as infrastructure spending picks up... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for the Chilean peso? While there is likely to be more turbulence ahead for the Chilean peso, the big falls are probably behind us. Indeed, with the central bank intervening and copper prices likely to rise, we think it’s... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think that the dollar is especially overvalued Despite President Trump’s frequent complaints about the strength of the dollar, its valuation is not especially high in our view and is unlikely to prevent it from rising further in the next couple of... 2nd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency falls won’t stop rate cuts The Brazilian real and the Chilean peso both fell sharply over the past week, but we still think that policymakers in both counties will cut their key interest rates in December. Despite positive... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Central bank asset purchases likely to keep yields low Although we think that the Fed is now done cutting rates, we think that more easing is coming outside the US and that major central banks will remain net buyers of bonds. With this in mind, we... 28th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is a crisis brewing in Taiwan? A sharp rise in the US dollar assets of Taiwanese life insurance companies poses a major threat to the health of the country’s financial sector and could also have consequences for the stability of... 25th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Would a Labour victory be a loss for the pound? A victory for Labour in the general election on 12th December would probably cause the pound to slide from $1.29/£ to around $1.20/£. But the prospect of a softer Brexit, or even no Brexit at all... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon and devaluation: a bitter medicine? Pressure is growing on Lebanon’s dollar peg and, in the event of a devaluation, the pound could fall by as much as 50% against the dollar. A messy sovereign default and a deep recession would follow... 19th November 2019 · 4 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Equity rally unlikely to last, regardless of a trade deal EM equities have continued to rise over the past month, seemingly driven by optimism about an imminent US/China trade deal and some improvement in the economic data. But we are sceptical that the... 13th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Another year of recession, mounting debt The Angolan currency’s recent fall will push up inflation and increase the debt-to-GDP ratio even further. While we don’t think that default is an imminent risk, the government will have to tighten... 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update South African bonds and the rand likely to sell-off The loss of the South African government’s final investment grade credit rating is already largely priced in, but there are still reasons to be downbeat on the country’s government bonds, and the rand... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Proportional” deal, renminbi, bank mergers A “Phase One” US-China trade deal that partially rolls back tariffs now appears within reach and, as a result, we no longer expect further renminbi weakness in the remaining weeks of this year. But... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
