Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s dollar pegs? Many of the non-oil producing countries in the region have tended to support their dollar pegs by maintaining a level of FX reserves sufficient to cover the monetary base. In Egypt and Jordan... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Labour market begins to loosen The jump in the unemployment rate in September is evidence that the labour market has entered a loosening phase. The Bank of Japan reiterated that the output gap was its key gauge of price pressures... 7th November 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What will New Zealand’s policymakers do in a crisis? Our central scenario is that cutting interest rates to 0.5% will be enough to weather the economic slowdown in 2020. And if required, fiscal policy and macroprudential tools could be used to help... 5th November 2019 · 18 mins read
Global Markets Update Riksbank hike wouldn’t do much for embattled krona The Riksbank appears determined to raise interest rates into an economic slowdown. While higher policy rates may provide some support for the Swedish krona, we still think that it will continue to... 1st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong goods inflation probably won’t last The resilience in Q3 inflation was driven by the strongest increase in goods prices in a decade. But with import price growth now slowing, we think that strength won’t last. Meanwhile, we’ve lifted... 1st November 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank hike wouldn’t do much for embattled krona The Riksbank appears determined to raise interest rates into an economic slowdown. While higher policy rates may provide some support for the Swedish krona, we still think that it will continue to... 1st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Road ahead still looks bumpy for equities We have revised up our end-2019 forecasts for equities, which previously pointed to a large correction. But even without this big pothole, we continue to think that the road ahead for them will be... 31st October 2019 · 30 mins read
China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update Protectionist threat from US unlikely to go away The US Treasury is due to report soon which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. But regardless of what the US Treasury decides, the... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update More trouble ahead for EM currencies We think that the recent weakness in emerging market (EM) currencies will continue during the rest of 2019, as a weaker global economy triggers a fresh bout of risk aversion. In 2020, we think that... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Brighter outlook for Norwegian krone next year While we think that there is still a bit more scope for the Norwegian krone to fall against the euro, we expect the currency to bounce back over the next couple of years, as the country’s terms of... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Brighter outlook for Norwegian krone next year While we think that there is still a bit more scope for the Norwegian krone to fall against the euro, we expect the currency to bounce back over the next couple of years, as the country’s terms of... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Can the strong dollar explain the global slowdown? Given the widespread use of the US dollar in international trade and finance, policymakers outside the US have suggested that the dollar’s appreciation is partly to blame for the slowdown in the world... 21st October 2019 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nobel prize money isn’t what it used to be The decades-long downward trend in the Swedish krona means that a Nobel prize in US dollar terms is worth less than half what it was in the early 1990s. With the krona set to fall further by year-end... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
