Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What to make of the weaker Swiss franc? The recent fall in the Swiss franc against the euro will be music to the SNB’s ears, and we think that there is plenty of scope for the currency to drift lower over the coming years. 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Why we think the rally in sterling will continue The pound has performed better than all other G10 currencies so far in 2021 (see Chart 1), rising from $1.36 at the start of January to almost a three-year high of $1.41 now. We expect the strength of... 24th February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Politics may spur renewed falls in the Brazilian real We doubt that the political concerns that have contributed to the latest sell-off in the Brazilian real will go away, which is why we expect the real to be one of the few EM currencies to depreciate... 23rd February 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect EM currency appreciation to moderate While we expect that EM currencies in general will rise further this year due to strong appetite for risk and a recovering global economy, we think several headwinds will limit their appreciation. 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish CBRT suggests Turkish lira may appreciate further The hawkish statement accompanying today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to keep its one-week repo rate on hold at 17.0% supports our view that the rally in the lira has further to run... 18th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ten key questions on the digital euro A digital euro is many years away, and the fact it is not intended to replace physical cash means that it won’t supercharge monetary policy as some may hope. However, it could become the norm for... 15th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We expect EM local currency govt. bond yields to remain low Although central banks in a couple of emerging markets (EMs) have taken a less accommodative stance than we had expected over the last two weeks, we remain more dovish than the consensus and investors... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Buoyant market mood should continue to support EM currencies We think emerging market currencies will resume appreciating against the US dollar before long, even if yields of US government bonds continue to rise a bit. 10th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think the 10-year gilt yield and sterling may rise a little further The Bank of England’s policy announcement on Thursday was in line with our expectations and provides further support to our view that the 10-year gilt yield will probably rise a little further this... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX intervention: echoes of “currency wars” The announcement of FX purchase programmes by several EM central banks has evoked comparisons with the “currency wars” that followed the Global Financial Crisis. One lesson from this period is that FX... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Strong labour markets point to tighter policy Underlying inflation picked up strongly in New Zealand in Q4, with core inflation rising above the mid-point of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. That supports our view that the RBNZ will not cut rates... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the US dollar to weaken further this year We think the recent deterioration in risk appetite explains much of the US dollar’s strength this week, but we expect its downward trend will eventually resume. 29th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Despite bubble talk, we expect risky assets to rise more We continue to forecast that risky assets generally will fare well over the next couple of years as the global economy recovers and monetary policy remains accommodative. Despite their rapid rise... 29th January 2021 · 30 mins read
China Chart Pack Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC Short-term funding costs for banks have risen sharply during the past couple of weeks. The 7-day depository repo rate (DR007), which has been flagged by the PBOC as a key benchmark and focus of... 29th January 2021 · 13 mins read
