Global Markets Update CAD resilience relative to AUD & NZD unlikely to last We expect appetite for risk and monetary policy to continue to be more important factors than commodity prices in determining the direction of the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie. With that in mind, we think... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Headwinds strengthening We still think that the impact of October’s sales tax hike on consumption will be smaller than after previous tax hikes. But the outlook for external demand remains poor and firms have become less... 9th October 2019 · 22 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) China’s FX reserves declined unexpectedly last month but officials claim this was due to valuation effects and muted outflow pressures suggest that the PBOC will have felt little urgency to run down... 7th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Broad US dollar strength likely to continue for now As the outlook for the global economy grows gloomier, the US dollar is strengthening towards multi-year highs. We expect it will appreciate further as safe haven demand intensifies over coming months. 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Valuations of US equities likely to fall back We don’t expect the valuations of US equities to continue to rise over the rest of 2019. In fact, we expect the price/earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 to fall, and this is a key reason why we... 3rd October 2019 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Not living up to their potential Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption... 30th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update Another oil shock would probably see the dollar rise, not fall Although the oil price has fallen back since the weekend’s attacks on production facilities in Saudi Arabia, it could surge again if there are further strikes or if tensions in the Middle East... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations still don’t look low The valuations of EM assets have fallen significantly from their peaks in this cycle around the start of last year, but remain above their averages since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In our view... 12th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting our currency forecasts Latin American currencies are likely to weaken further in the coming months alongside most EM currencies. But while we expect the Chilean peso and Peruvian sol to end next year stronger than their... 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE currencies will continue to struggle We doubt that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies will be able to regain any of the ground they have lost against the euro over the next year or so. The Hungarian forint is likely to be the... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Aug.) Exports fell last month as global demand softened and US tariffs continued to take their toll. Imports improved thanks to strong infrastructure spending but remain consistent with a further economic... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australian dollar has further to fall At the start of the year, we were a lone voice forecasting that the Australian dollar would decline to US$0.65 by year-end. The Australian dollar has come under increasing pressure this month on a... 2nd September 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Current account surplus won’t last long RBA Deputy Governor Debelle argued this week that Australia’s net foreign liability position makes Australia less vulnerable than many believe because its net foreign assets tend to rise when the... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Argentina’s FX reserves The Argentine central bank’s large intervention in the FX market in recent days hasn’t been enough to stop the peso from weakening further against the dollar, and we think that the gross FX reserve... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
