Japan Chart Pack New cases not exploding but economic hit still huge A second wave of virus cases driven by rising infections in Tokyo and Osaka has triggered a major shift in economic behaviour. And while new cases in the two lynchpins of the Japanese economy have... 17th April 2020 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily EM currency weakness unlikely to last Emerging market currencies have generally fallen back over the past couple of days as the equity market rally has stalled and oil prices have dropped. Although they may face further turbulence, we... 15th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt, the pound and lessons from the past Egypt’s central bank is intervening to prop up the pound, but the experience from the previous decade is that such efforts ultimately prove futile. If policymakers try to support the pound for an... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Output to fall more than during global financial crisis Lockdowns will soon be imposed across much of Japan, triggering a decline of more than 10% in economic activity this quarter. The government’s latest fiscal package is intended to help firms stay... 8th April 2020 · 19 mins read
Global Markets Update EM currencies likely to rebound, but risks remain high While the worst may be yet to come for emerging market currencies, we expect that most will end this year stronger than they are now. 1st April 2020 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack Labour market conditions continue to worsen Activity across both industry and services is recovering as measures to contain the coronavirus have been eased. But the recovery is likely to run into the constraint of weak demand before long. The... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Update Dollar likely to remain strong until pandemic peaks While we think that most currencies will eventually regain much of the ground that they have recently lost to the US dollar, we don’t expect that process to start until the pandemic has clearly passed... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Slump in rupiah may prompt more aggressive action The slump in the rupiah poses a major threat to Indonesia because of the country’s high level of foreign currency debt. So far, the response of the central bank has been to step up its intervention in... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil shock forces CBN to accept inevitable The controlled devaluation of the naira will help to preserve Nigeria’s scarce FX reserves and encourage foreign investment inflows. Given, however, that officials opted to maintain a dual-track... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Gauging the impact of Lat Am currency falls The turmoil in Latin American currency markets will push up inflation, particularly in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, and it already appears to have resulted in strains in corporate bond markets. One... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of the moves in commodity currencies The slump in the prices of commodities has hit hard the currencies of the countries whose fortunes depend heavily on them. But if we are right and commodity prices eventually recover as the... 23rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policymakers hold back, rupee drops to record low Both Prime Minister Modi and RBI Governor Das took cautious steps in their responses to the coronavirus outbreak this week, but left the door open for more aggressive measures. With domestic virus... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Market mayhem may get worse before it gets better The turmoil in financial markets caused by the global spread of COVID-19 shows little sign of abating, despite policymakers’ efforts to contain the fallout. Our view remains that until evidence... 17th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will the Gulf’s dollar pegs survive the fall in oil prices? The collapse in oil prices over the past week has put pressure on the Gulf’s dollar pegs, but we think that a wave of devaluations is extremely unlikely. Large foreign exchange savings provide... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
