Commodities Update Oil to disregard US dollar strength The recent depreciation in the US dollar has helped to boost commodity prices. But while we expect a stronger dollar to weigh on most commodity prices later this year, we think that oil prices will... 20th May 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Why we still favour the US dollar over the euro Despite its recent resurgence, we continue to think that the euro will weaken against the dollar this year. 19th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Near-term inflation pressures mount Near-term inflationary pressures appear to be building. Some of this reflects factors that are likely to be only temporary, such as the “reopening inflation” associated with the easing of virus... 17th May 2021 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market implications of slower growth in China We think slowing economic growth in China – highlighted again by today’s economic data – has several key implications for the country’s financial markets. 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currency markets weighing the prospects for recovery The unexpected jump in US inflation data pushed the greenback higher against most currencies this week and may a harbinger of things to come – we continue to expect the dollar to appreciate this year... 14th May 2021 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Outlook We expect higher US yields to lead to a stronger dollar We think the greenback will strengthen a bit over the next couple of years as the economy in the US outperforms during the recovery from COVID-19 and government bond yields there generally rise faster... 12th May 2021 · 22 mins read
FX Markets Update Our top 10 calls on currency markets This Update sets out the main calls of our new FX service. As part of our expanded coverage of currency markets, we will maintain and continuously update this set of core predictions. Our first FX... 12th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
China Economic Outlook Rebound levelling off After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Low valuations may not support LatAm equities While the valuation of the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Latin America Index is now low both by past standards and on a relative basis, we think that further gains in the index will be driven mostly by... 22nd April 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think that euro-zone yields will continue to rise gradually The ECB’s monetary policy decision and press conference today supports our view that the yields of 10-year euro-zone government bonds will rise gradually over the coming years as economic conditions... 22nd April 2021 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Diverging China-US economic outlooks may weigh on renminbi With the growth trajectories of China and the US likely to continue to diverge as the year goes on, we doubt the renminbi’s recent rebound against the US dollar will continue. 16th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Bond rout and equity rotation likely to resume We are forecasting a very strong – but also somewhat uneven – recovery in the global economy over the next couple of years as the pandemic is gradually contained, with three key implications for asset... 16th April 2021 · 25 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Limited scope for valuations to push risky assets higher In our view, changes to the economic and policy outlook since the pandemic mean that corporate credit spreads in the US may remain lower than in their recent past for some time. Nonetheless, we see... 15th April 2021 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect bond yield divergence to favour the USD We expect higher government bond yields in the US than in other developed markets (DMs) to push the US dollar up, as has generally been the case since the Global Financial Crisis. 9th April 2021 · 4 mins read
