Africa Economics Weekly Flurry of FX action in Nigeria, looming strikes in SA The Central Bank of Nigeria this week took further steps to tighten its oversight over foreign currency transactions and, even if the country’s multiple exchange windows are set to a unified rate, we... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Real rate differentials may continue to weigh on US dollar While we think that nominal interest rates and bond yields in developed markets will remain around their current ultra-low levels for some time, we think that their real counterparts will fall further... 28th August 2020 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing The consumption share of GDP had edged up in recent years, but that progress has been reversed by the COVID-19 stimulus response, which has focused on boosting investment. The consumption share should... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
India Chart Pack Investment will take years to recover If the monthly activity data are anything to go by, GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY20/21) due at the end of the month will show that investment slumped by more than 30% y/y. That will prove the bottom given... 19th August 2020 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly The Phase One trade deal is on borrowed time Next week’s semi-annual review of the Phase One trade deal will likely be a sobering affair given China’s limited progress toward meeting its purchase commitments. While both sides appear content to... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Rupee could weaken even if risk appetite holds up After hitting an all-time low in April, the rupee has strengthened by 3% against the US dollar as risk appetite has returned to global financial markets. But while we think risky assets generally –... 22nd July 2020 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect the dollar to come under renewed pressure Although the US dollar has stabilised over the past month or so as fears about a second wave have held back the rebound in risky assets, we continue to think that it will lose further ground over the... 20th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Policymakers’ actions may boost the euro further this year Failure by EU leaders to approve the Recovery Fund this weekend would probably weigh on the euro in the near term, but we still think that policymakers will eventually reach an agreement and provide... 16th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economies coming roaring back Restrictions on activity have lifted in both countries. While some states in Australia still limit the size of groups and capacity at restaurants, New Zealand has now lifted all domestic restrictions... 30th June 2020 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect more upside for the euro & many E-Z assets While the euro and many euro-zone assets have rallied significantly over the past two months, we think that there is scope for them to make more headway this year. 26th June 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Financial conditions ease but headwinds remain After tightening dramatically in March following the outbreak of the coronavirus, our proprietary index shows that financial conditions in India have eased substantially over the past couple of months... 24th June 2020 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect commodity currencies to make further ground If we are right that commodity prices will make up more ground as economies continue to reopen, the rally in commodity currencies may have further to go. 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think the rally in the euro has further to run While the euro has already benefited significantly from a step-up in policymakers’ efforts to avoid another debt crisis, we think that there is scope for it to rise further this year. 19th June 2020 · 8 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Most EM currencies likely to rise a bit further While much of the rebound in EM currencies is now probably behind us, we think that many of them will rise a bit further against the US dollar as risky assets generally continue to recover. 17th June 2020 · 7 mins read
