FX Markets Update Why we remain bearish on the renminbi We continue to think that the renminbi will end the year weaker against the US dollar and, while not an essential factor in that forecast, the recent steps by China’s policymakers to weaken the... 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Can the government spend its way to more births? While few observers believe the new three-child policy announced this week will do much to lift China’s birth rate, some are pinning higher hopes on the promise of more generous welfare benefits for... 4th June 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the commodity currency divergence Several emerging market commodity currencies have struggled this year, despite the rally in most commodity prices. We think that most will face further headwinds, even the current valuation gap may... 1st June 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect the renminbi’s strength to last While the renminbi has appreciated recently – to the point that policymakers have stepped in to slow its rise – we continue to think that it will end the year weaker against the US dollar. 1st June 2021 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack The three-child policy: too little, too late State media announced today that China’s family planning policy will be relaxed to allow all families to have three children, up from the current limit of two. This comes shortly after China’s once-a... 31st May 2021 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Payrolls take centre stage again While strong data in the US have provided some support for the dollar, it remains broadly flat on the week. With economic recoveries well underway in most developed markets, focus remains on what the... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira touches new low, CEE bond yield divergence It's been a rocky week for the Turkish lira amid more changes at the central bank and political upheaval regarding a possible link between politicians and organised crime. This, coming alongside high... 28th May 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC’s turn to target currency manipulators After regulators last week pledged to root speculators out from the domestic commodity market, this week it was the turn of the People’s Bank to tackle manipulation in the currency market, which it... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM equities will rise, not shine We forecast that emerging market (EM) equities will make further gains between now and end-2022 as the global economy recovers further. However, they have lost a bit of ground to developed market (DM)... 27th May 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Focus A primer on our new FX Markets service The purpose of this Focus is to introduce our new FX Markets service, which we launched in May 2021. It is split into three sections. The first provides an overview of the new service. The second... 27th May 2021 · 13 mins read
China Economics Focus The implications for China and the world of eCNY In this Focus we detail what is known about how China’s central bank digital currency (CBDC) will operate, when it will launch, what the People’s Bank is trying to achieve, and whether it will succeed... 27th May 2021 · 29 mins read
Capital Daily We think the euro’s recent strength will prove to be transitory While recent strong data confirm that the economic recovery in the eurozone is underway, we continue to think the euro will weaken against the US dollar this year. 25th May 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Prospects for central bank tightening remain in focus In a fairly quiet week for currency markets, the minutes from the FOMC’s April meeting proved the highlight. The US dollar rose sharply on the news that at least some Fed officials are keen to start... 21st May 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily PMIs, bond yields & the euro The latest flash PMIs reinforce our view that the economy will continue to grow at a faster pace in the US than in the euro-zone in the next few years. This feeds into our forecast that long-dated... 21st May 2021 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We doubt inflation will send the equity rally into reverse While inflation fears have taken some steam out of the US stock market rally recently, we still think that equities in the US, and elsewhere, will make further gains over the next couple of years. 20th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We expect recent strength in the South African rand to reverse Despite its recent appreciation against the US dollar, we expect the South African rand – like most emerging market (EM) currencies – to end this year weaker against the greenback. 20th May 2021 · 6 mins read
