Africa Economics Update Africa: Oil exporters’ currencies set for big falls Risk-off sentiment has already battered the rand, but we think that the Nigerian naira and Angolan kwanza will both fall further later this year when policymakers are forced to accept painful... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the impact of a weaker ruble for Russia The recent fall in the ruble will help to cushion the hit to the Russian government’s revenues resulting from the plunge in oil prices, but it will come at a cost to corporates that have large... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Intervention won’t prevent yen from strengthening We suspect that Japan’s government won’t intervene in the foreign exchange market until the yen hits 90 against the dollar. The key point is that foreign exchange intervention probably won’t prevent... 10th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for the Brazilian real? The Brazilian real has fallen to a record low and, while our central view is that it will recover some lost ground in the second half of the year, it will remain much weaker than most currently... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How much will recent currency falls raise inflation? We estimate that the coronavirus-related sell-off in EM currencies will push up inflation over the next year by 0.6-0.7%-pts in Russia, Turkey and South Africa, reinforcing our view that easing cycles... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack The coronavirus impact on Indian industry Temporary disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus should have limited macroeconomic impact on Indian industry. After all, India has a negligible supply-chain exposure to China, where factory... 24th February 2020 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro likely to end 2020 even weaker against the dollar While the euro has already fallen to its lowest level in nearly two years against the US dollar, we think that it will drop a bit further during the rest of 2020, pushed down by several factors... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Currency adjustments lie in store in a few economies Current account positions in the largest MENA economies (particularly in the Gulf, but also Egypt) have improved over the past few years. But deficits elsewhere remain large. And Algeria, Tunisia and... 19th February 2020 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Twin rally in equities and bonds unlikely to last Given our view that investors’ expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year will be disappointed, we think that the twin rally in US equity and bond markets will end before long. 18th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update US dollar likely to stay strong even if virus risk fades We think that the greenback will remain strong this year, even if some of its recent strength may unwind. 17th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of recent moves in bonds & currencies We think that the recent rebound in the yields of many developed and emerging market government bonds will generally continue in the rest of this year, if the coronavirus epidemic is contained. By... 13th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Support for Turkish lira cannot be sustained The Turkish authorities have kept a tight grip on the lira in recent weeks but we don’t think that this can continue for much longer and expect the currency to fall by 20% against the dollar by end... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update ECB loosening set to support Danish krone The step-up in interventions by Denmark’s Nationalbank (DNB) to strengthen the krone in January puts to bed the idea that the Bank is comfortable with allowing the krone to trade in a more symmetric... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How will the coronavirus affect Indonesia? Indonesia’s direct ties to China are relatively small, which makes the economy less vulnerable to the spread of the coronavirus than other countries in Emerging Asia. The main channel through which... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Weak recovery likely to leave markets treading water After a stellar 2019 for most risky assets, we think that they will generally make only small gains in 2020. Admittedly, our forecasts assume that the effects of the coronavirus outbreak on markets... 27th January 2020 · 31 mins read
