China Chart Pack Investors refocus on long-term concerns Questions about the strength of China’s post-lockdown rebound have become louder since the People’s Bank cut the required reserve ratio three weeks ago. But the trigger for this week’s sharp equity... 30th July 2021 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We expect more upside for the US dollar We continue to think that the US dollar will rise further in the second half of the year as the divergence between the US and other major economies in terms of growth and, especially, inflation... 27th July 2021 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Update Forecast revisions & taking stock of our key calls We have revised down our forecasts for many of the G10 “high-beta” currencies and several currencies in EM Asia and LatAm. This update sets out the rationale behind those revisions and updates our key... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets to regain their poise as recoveries continue While the resurgence in COVID-19 cases that has recently weighted on UK equities, the pound and 10-year gilt yields is clearly a downside risk, our view that it won’t deal a big blow to the global or... 22nd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Tempering our optimism We no longer expect equities and corporate bonds to outperform “safe” government bonds by anything like as much as we did a couple of quarters ago, and we continue to forecast that some other “risky”... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Capital Daily We expect EM currencies to remain under pressure We doubt that today’s rebound in emerging market currencies marks the start of a renewed rally and expect them to continue to depreciate against the US dollar over the next few years. 21st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics A two-speed recovery Strong COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in most of the Gulf and Morocco mean that remaining virus restrictions should be lifted by the end of this year, providing a boost to recoveries that, in the Gulf... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery, but inflation a lasting concern Rapid recoveries are underway across the region and GDP should return close to its pre-pandemic path sooner than in most other EM regions. While the spread of highly transmissible virus strains poses... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar continues to edge higher despite stalling US yields While the US dollar rose sharply after Tuesday’s exceptionally strong inflation print, that was partly offset by Fed Chair Powell’s relatively dovish comments in his testimony to Congress. But overall... 16th July 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the dollar rally & why we think it will continue The US dollar has risen significantly since the June FOMC meeting, with another surge after today’s strong inflation data, and we think the greenback will make further headway in the second half of... 13th July 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Growth concerns buoy the dollar despite falling US yields Although it has fallen back a bit today after China delivered a surprise cut to banks’ reserve requirements, the US dollar has otherwise continued to appreciate against most currencies. The dollar’s... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the carry trade after the FOMC’s surprise While the shift towards rate hikes in several key emerging markets has provided a boost to their currencies, we doubt that the carry trade will fare as well in the second half of the year. 6th July 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The US dollar rally may have further to run The US dollar is ending the week stronger against most currencies, although it has fallen back a little this afternoon despite the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report. While that reaction... 2nd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian ruble may hold onto some of this year’s gains The Russian ruble appreciated to a one-year high against the dollar recently but we think the rally will fade as oil prices fall back and US Treasury yields rise further. That said, the central bank’s... 2nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weighing up the prospects for the NOK We think that the Norwegian krone will continue to strengthen against the euro over next year or so. This is despite our forecast for a pull-back in oil prices and reflects our view of the relative... 1st July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack No, China isn’t exporting inflation Some believe that China is adding to global inflationary pressure. The opposite is closer to the truth: the large increase in China’s trade surplus over the past year signals that supply from China... 30th June 2021 · 13 mins read
