China Economics Weekly HK security law pours fuel on US-China tensions The central government’s decision to impose national security legislation on Hong Kong risks undermining the city’s economic success and the US response may add to those headwinds. More broadly, the... 29th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update The Brazilian real and commodity prices Our forecast that the Brazilian real will recoup some lost ground by end-2020 should put upward pressure on the prices of its commodity exports. However, other factors, such as the health of the... 27th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update Pound taking a one-two punch from coronavirus and Brexit The recent weakness in the pound has been driven by renewed concerns about Brexit and the prospect that the Bank of England will have to cut interest rates below zero to support the economy. As a... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the US dollar’s strength will end soon Although uncertainty about the post-virus prospects for the global economy should continue to support the US dollar, we think that the ongoing recovery in risky assets and the fall in US interest... 19th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: no devaluation, but a big dose of austerity Oman is one of the most vulnerable economies in the Gulf to a period of ultra-low oil prices but we think that financial support from its neighbours will avert the need to abandon the dollar peg. Even... 18th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Green shoots after Golden Week holiday Economic activity remained severely damaged by coronavirus containment efforts in early May. In particular, the retail sector usually receives a substantial boost during Golden Week but the number of... 15th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey and the rising risk of (another) currency crisis The huge hit to Turkey’s balance of payments position from the coronavirus crisis and the evaporation of investors’ confidence in policymakers makes the risk of a currency crisis like that seen in... 11th May 2020 · 18 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending, trade talks, renminbi In a sign that consumption is still being held back by concerns over the virus and households’ finances, domestic tourism spending during the Labour Day holiday was down 60% y/y despite the fact that... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor MSCI USA’s valuation most stretched since dot-com era The price/estimated earnings (P/E) ratio of the MSCI USA Index – a benchmark index of mid- and large-cap US equities – recently rose to its highest level since the dot-com era. Nonetheless, we still... 22nd April 2020 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi can withstand pressure on riyal Pressure is mounting on Saudi Arabia’s dollar peg and, while there is some opaqueness over the full size of the Kingdom’s FX reserves, we estimate that the authorities could prop up the riyal at... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf to rely on austerity rather than devaluations The collapse in oil prices has led to renewed pressure on dollar pegs in the Gulf and, while there could be some positive effects on balance sheets from devaluations, the costs would be politically... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
Global Markets Update EM currency recovery unlikely to match 2009-10 We continue to think that most EM currencies will end the year higher than their current levels, even if they face further turbulence. But we don’t expect them to recover as strongly as they did after... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
