Global Markets Update We think that most EM currencies will rebound further While we think that much of the rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies is now behind us, we still expect that most of them will make a bit more headway against the dollar in the second half of the... 16th June 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Return of risk appetite to benefit UK assets A continued return of risk appetite as the economy slowly recovers from the coronavirus crisis will boost equities and the pound so long as there is a compromise on Brexit. But with the Bank of... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon’s crisis goes from really bad to even worse Lebanon’s government has made little progress with its economic rescue plan and there’s a growing likelihood that the sovereign debt and currency crises already underway will ultimately lead to series... 15th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that the US dollar will weaken further We now expect that the US dollar will depreciate further as risky assets resume their rebound and the global economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Brexit uncertainty likely to continue to cloud sterling outlook While sterling has rallied sharply over the past couple of days, its performance had previously lagged that of other risky currencies recently. That appears to partly reflect renewed concerns about... 2nd June 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Normal still a long way off As the lockdowns have largely come to an end in both countries, output is starting to recover. In New Zealand, most activity is now allowed to resume, though gatherings are limited to 100 people. In... 29th May 2020 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly HK security law pours fuel on US-China tensions The central government’s decision to impose national security legislation on Hong Kong risks undermining the city’s economic success and the US response may add to those headwinds. More broadly, the... 29th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update The Brazilian real and commodity prices Our forecast that the Brazilian real will recoup some lost ground by end-2020 should put upward pressure on the prices of its commodity exports. However, other factors, such as the health of the... 27th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update Pound taking a one-two punch from coronavirus and Brexit The recent weakness in the pound has been driven by renewed concerns about Brexit and the prospect that the Bank of England will have to cut interest rates below zero to support the economy. As a... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the US dollar’s strength will end soon Although uncertainty about the post-virus prospects for the global economy should continue to support the US dollar, we think that the ongoing recovery in risky assets and the fall in US interest... 19th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: no devaluation, but a big dose of austerity Oman is one of the most vulnerable economies in the Gulf to a period of ultra-low oil prices but we think that financial support from its neighbours will avert the need to abandon the dollar peg. Even... 18th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Green shoots after Golden Week holiday Economic activity remained severely damaged by coronavirus containment efforts in early May. In particular, the retail sector usually receives a substantial boost during Golden Week but the number of... 15th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey and the rising risk of (another) currency crisis The huge hit to Turkey’s balance of payments position from the coronavirus crisis and the evaporation of investors’ confidence in policymakers makes the risk of a currency crisis like that seen in... 11th May 2020 · 18 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending, trade talks, renminbi In a sign that consumption is still being held back by concerns over the virus and households’ finances, domestic tourism spending during the Labour Day holiday was down 60% y/y despite the fact that... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
