After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to keep fiscal policy supportive. Outside of the Gulf, balance of payments strains mean that Egypt will need to loosen its grip on the pound soon to keep its IMF deal on track. Tunisia’s external strains are altogether worse and, with key crunch points on the debt repayment schedule on the horizon, we think a sovereign default is more likely than not.
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