The outlook for EM GDP growth appears increasingly challenging and our growth forecasts for this year generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue although, outside Asia, high inflation means that interest rate cuts will be smaller than most expect. Heightened political risk has driven sell-offs in several major EMs this month, but financial risks across the emerging world generally look low.
US import tariffs will have a particularly large impact on Mexico given its dependence on US demand. India and Brazil could face high tariffs under a reciprocal tariff policy given their own high trade barriers.
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