EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue but, outside Asia, high inflation means rate cuts will be smaller than most expect.
Donald Trump’s tariff threats have so far focused mainly on the Americas, with Mexico looking particularly vulnerable. EMs generally look well placed to weather an environment of a stronger dollar and higher US Treasury yields.
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