We expect most commodity prices to fall over the next couple of years as greater supply enters the market. Industrial metals are the exception, China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus in recent months and this should continue to support construction activity this year. The clean energy transition will provide an additional prop to industrial metals demand while simultaneously eroding growth in fossil fuel consumption. Oil prices will come under further downward pressure as OPEC+ members gradually unwind production cuts and a vast increase in natural gas liquefaction capacity in 2024-26 will weigh on gas prices.
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