Joe Maher

Joe Maher joined Capital Economics in September 2023 as an Assistant Economist on the graduate training scheme. He currently works on our Climate and Commodities team. He holds a degree in Economics from the University of Warwick.

Capital Daily

UK equities ignoring struggling economy

UK equities have kept up with other non-US ones in recent months despite a string of weak domestic activity data and stubborn inflation pressure. We think they will outperform most non-US markets in...

18th December 2024 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Rally in long-dated Treasuries may have run its course

We think the rally in 10-year Treasuries over recent weeks reflects both the incoming US economic data and changing perceptions towards Trump’s policy agenda. But we don’t expect this rally to...

6th December 2024 5 mins read

Commodities Update

Is the gold rally over?

Despite the recent upward revisions to our forecasts for the US dollar and Treasury yields, we think the gold price will rise to $2,750 by end-2025. This reflects our view that stronger gold demand...

2nd December 2024 4 mins read

Capital Daily

What next for the Treasury yield curve?

We expect the Treasury yield curve to steepen further over the coming year, but driven by falling short-dated yields rather than – as has been the case in the wake of Trump’s win – rising long-dated...

14th November 2024 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Payrolls overshadowed by election and earnings

October’s distorted payrolls print probably won’t change the outlook for the Fed, which we expect to cut by 25bp next week. Instead, earnings season and the looming US election continue to dominate...

1st November 2024 6 mins read

Bonds Update

Will gilts shrug off this week’s Budget?

The possibility of looser fiscal policy than previous planned in the upcoming UK Budget on 30th October suggests the risks to our forecast that the 10-year gilt yield will fall to 3.50% by end-2025...

28th October 2024 4 mins read

Another China stimulus let-down, the Fed and ECB’s next steps, India’s commodities demand and more

12th October 2024

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Capital Daily

We doubt the Budget will prevent Gilts from rallying

We think that the larger rise in yields in the UK than elsewhere over the past month is due to expectations that the Budget will boost demand rather than fiscal fears. That said, there is some upside...

11th October 2024 5 mins read

GBP likely to fall by more against EUR than USD

We expect sterling to weaken by ~4% against the euro and ~1% against the dollar by end-2025. This reflects our view that the Bank of England will loosen monetary policy by more than what investors are...

11th October 2024 4 mins read

Capital Daily

What next for Treasuries after blockbuster payrolls?

The strong reading on the US labour market released today has taken the 10-year Treasury yield towards our end-2024 forecast of 4%. We expect it to stay around this level, though the risks to the...

4th October 2024 5 mins read

Asset Allocation Outlook

Asset allocation as the Fed cuts and the US votes

We expect equities to fare best among the major asset classes we track through the end of 2025, as the AI bubble reinflates. We suspect government and corporate bonds will generally do less well...

25th September 2024 28 mins read

Global Markets Update

Depreciation in Mexican peso may have a bit further to run

Despite the peso’s recent rebound, we suspect that an unstable political and economic outlook means that it, and Mexican financial assets more generally, will perform poorly over the next year or so.

17th September 2024 4 mins read

Commodities Focus

Will India kickstart the next commodity boom?

With a large and growing population and a bright long-term economic outlook, the stage is set for India’s commodity demand to boom. However, there are several reasons why India won’t have the same...

10th September 2024 11 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Lack of ceasefire deal poses risks; gold at record

The apparent stall in the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas limited the fall in oil prices this week. While we think a deal wouldn’t be a game-changer for oil prices, a further breakdown in...

23rd August 2024 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

Commodities have not been immune to the recent turmoil in financial markets, with the prices of most industrial metals, agricultural, and energy commodities extending their downward trends over the...

7th August 2024 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Oil prices rise on Middle East conflict, cut down by US

The oil market's fairly muted reaction to events in the Middle East this week only temporarily reversed the recent downward trend in oil prices. On the face of it, however, the risk of a spike in oil...

2nd August 2024 4 mins read