Commodities Update China NPC is no gamechanger for commodity markets Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US tariffs: what next for commodity markets? Tariffs have already boosted commodity prices in the US, and the risks to global prices and trade flows will only grow if tariffs become more widespread. Our Oil and Metals Tariff Impact Trackers are... 4th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Trump continues to strain relations with MENA President Trump’s doubling down on the future of Gaza continues to muddle efforts to bring the Middle East into the US’s sphere of influence. Meanwhile, the UAE and Bahrain are the two countries in... 13th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Keeping track of “cost and chaos” in metals markets Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley has poetically described the impacts in metals markets so far of President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium as “a lot of cost and chaos”. Our new... 12th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Commodities Outlook Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of... 13th December 2024 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in... 24th September 2024 · 24 mins read
Commodities Update China’s metals overcapacity to bear down on prices While the debate around China’s manufacturing overcapacity has centred around politically sensitive topics such as electric vehicles, its industrial metals sector is no exception. Whereas the focus of... 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Injecting some nuance into high hopes for hydrogen Hydrogen could play a key role in reducing emissions in hard-to-abate sectors such as steelmaking and be a boon for countries and regions that are well placed to produce a surplus of renewable power... 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Commodity prices to fall back We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to... 27th June 2024 · 21 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Metals Chart Pack (June 2024) Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The rally in industrial metals prices over the last few months has begun to unwind and, because it... 4th June 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Your latest commodities questions answered We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook. This Update answers several of the questions that we received. 10th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Metals Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The strong rally in industrial metals prices seems stretched and, as a result, we expect prices to... 7th May 2024 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China property contraction to hit metals prices hard In light of our China team’s new non-consensus view that an aggressive slowdown in property sector construction seems almost inevitable in the years ahead, we have revised our price forecasts. We now... 10th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices on shaky foundations US steelmakers are preparing for robust growth in steel demand over the next few years, however we think those expectations will fall flat. Steel demand from property construction is likely to fall... 5th April 2024 · 3 mins read
