Commodities Update A primer on the EU’s deforestation regulation The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will rejig the way commodity imports enter the EU when it comes into force later this year and could lead to premiums for compliant commodities over non... 17th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Attention turns towards the return of La Niña A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so... 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Croatia’s outperformance in Europe to continue Croatia has established itself as one of the fastest growing economies in the EU and we think that it will maintain GDP growth of around 3% p.a. over 2024-26. Income convergence – which has been rapid... 23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Cocoa’s Dizzying Volatility Is Spilling Into the Coffee Market Coffee is likely to fare better than cocoa once European Union regulation aimed at preventing deforestation takes effect at the end of the year. That’s because coffee intake is more global than... 8th May 2024 · Bloomberg
Energy Update Mexico’s oil export cuts won’t damage global supply Longstanding turmoil in Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, alongside newly announced export cuts, raise questions about the outlook for Mexico’s oil output. But it will not be a large enough... 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency worries, Venezuela oil sanctions The recent falls in many Latin American currencies, alongside stubbornly strong core price pressures, support our relatively hawkish view on the outlook for monetary policy in the region. Elsewhere... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Middle East tensions may support Venezuela’s oil sector Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and the impact on global oil supplies increase the likelihood that the US will renew its sanctions waiver on Venezuela when the current one... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Grain pain is over – wheat prices will remain low Wheat prices have been in decline for most of the past two years. We think that they are now near their trough, but the prospect of another good global harvest in 2024/25 means that we shouldn’t see a... 9th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: strong recovery set to weaken Uganda’s strong recent economic recovery is facing domestic and external headwinds, including international condemnation of the government’s Anti-Homosexuality Bill – and the associated impact on... 8th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to cool, but metals to hold firm for now We expect most commodity prices to fall over the next couple of years as greater supply enters the market. Industrial metals are the exception, China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus in recent... 4th April 2024 · 33 mins read
Cocoa prices make chocolate more expensive, but these LatAm countries could seize the moment Capital Economics' Fisher cites the case of Brazil, which aims to produce enough to meet domestic demand by 2025, eliminating the need for imports. "By the end of the decade, Brazil and Ecuador should... 21st March 2024 · Bloomberg
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) We expect oil prices to edge lower in the second half of 2024 as OPEC+ starts to unwind its production cuts. However, the Israel-Hamas war, and associated risks to supply, will act as a floor under... 12th March 2024 · 1 min read
Why your Easter egg will be smaller and more expensive this year Megan Fisher, of Capital Economics, adds: “Farmers are not paid enough to reinvest into the cocoa crops.” 22nd February 2024 · The Telegraph
Commodities Weekly Cocoa prices could be close to a melting point The price of cocoa was the star performer this week in commodity markets, rising by 16% on the week. The price has risen by 40% since the start of this year, on the back of consistently poor harvests... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Oil prices are likely to remain buffeted by supply fears as long as the conflict in the Middle East continues. However, we think there will be support on the demand side later in the year as monetary... 6th February 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Metals to benefit in 2024 from green transition We expect most commodity prices to rise in 2024 as major central banks loosen monetary policy and economic activity starts to pick up. Meanwhile, China’s policymakers have taken steps to support the... 15th December 2023 · 31 mins read
