The GDP target announced for 2025 suggests that policymakers are hoping to achieve steady growth this year, but we don’t think that the policy agenda set out today at the National People’s Congress will prevent a slowdown. While fiscal support has been stepped up, the scale of easing is smaller than we had expected, and modest in comparison to previous easing cycles. And the lowering of the inflation target suggests monetary easing could also be less significant than we had expected. As a result, although the government’s growth target of “around 5%” may be met on paper, we think the economy’s actual growth will be much weaker.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services