Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the New Zealand economy in a tailspin and inflation well on its way to target, we expect the RBNZ to keep cutting rates by 50bp at its next two meetings. We expect rates to fall to 2.25% by end-2025, far lower than most anticipate. By contrast, the RBA is unlikely to loosen policy before Q2 2025, making it the last advanced economy central bank to do so. Given the tight labour market and elevated levels of public demand, the scope for rate cuts will be modest. Although we expect activity to gain traction in both economies over the coming quarters, growth is likely to remain below trend in the near term.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services