Canada Economics Update

Housing Watch (Dec. 2024)

The rise in home sales in November builds on the jump in October and is particularly positive considering some buyers may have held off from purchases ahead of the new mortgage rules that took effect...

16th December 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

What’s really happening with new build house prices?

The Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) November house price data release indicates unusually large increases in new build house prices in recent months. We suspect that this reported rise does not...

12th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths

Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery...

12th December 2024 · 20 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 2024)

November’s RICS survey provides further evidence that housing activity and prices remained resilient to the rise in mortgage rates in November. And our view that mortgage rates will start to fall...

12th December 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Nov. 2024)

The leap in Halifax house prices in November mirrors the jump in the Nationwide measure and suggests that some relief rally or release of pent-up demand after the Budget has more than offset the...

6th December 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 24)

Conditions for would-be homebuyers and sellers will not improve much in the near term, with mortgage rates set to remain around 7% through the first half of next year, before modest relief arrives...

2nd December 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Prices (Nov. 2024)

November’s surprisingly large rise in the Nationwide house price index suggests the housing market is picking up momentum despite recent rises in mortgage rates. With housing affordability still...

2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep. 2024)

The second consecutive moderate 0.3% rise in house prices in September reflects the market picking up momentum over the summer as mortgage rates fell. However, timelier indicators, like the sales-to...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the...

21st November 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Our new forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower and not as far means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% in October to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still...

20th November 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Nov. 2024)

Lower mortgage rates appear to be finally sparking a recovery in the housing market, with home sales soaring to a two-and-a-half-year high last month and the sales-to-new listing ratio now pointing to...

19th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

Muted housing recovery won’t prevent rapid rate cuts

While we expect the RBNZ to cut interest rates by the most since the GFC over the coming year, housing affordability was never as stretched at the start of an easing cycle as it was at the start of...

19th November 2024 · 12 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Rising household size will weigh on house prices

A plunge in the average household size kept housing demand strong during the pandemic even as population growth ground to a halt. RBA estimates suggest that the average household size has remained low...

18th November 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Slower rate cuts won’t prevent solid house price gains

Our forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% now to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still think that mortgage rates...

14th November 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 2024)

October’s RICS survey points to robust house price growth but the Budget means that mortgages rates will probably fall a bit slower than we previously thought, which will restrain house prices next...

14th November 2024 · 3 mins read