Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: January rate hike now looking likely A flurry of communication by the Bank of Japan this week suggests that a rate hike at next week's meeting is very likely. And whereas the financial markets foresee just one additional 25bp rate hike... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 16th January 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s easing cycle may be inching closer Economic data released this week are likely to reinforce the Reserve Bank of Australia's dovish mood. Indeed, we learnt that underlying inflation is easing in earnest and is likely to undershoot the... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We are resending this publication because the heading of the previous version contained an error. With real household incomes set to fall again this year, the rebound in consumer spending will start... 9th January 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (November 24) Growth in base pay rose to its highest figure since 1992 in November, and we think that it will continue to hold strong through to this year. According to today’s preliminary estimate, labour cash... 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ still signalling room – and desire – to hike further Governor Ueda delivered two messages in the press conference after yesterday’s policy meeting: first, the Bank of Japan thinks that policy normalisation is still on track and it intends to raise rates... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Nov. 24) November’s surge in inflation wasn’t a surprise – the Bank of Japan will have known it was on the cards when it decided not to hike rates yesterday. But it should add to the Bank’s confidence that it... 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tankan adds to case for December hike We’re in a minority of analysts expecting the Bank of Japan to hike rates next week. But the ongoing labour shortages and strength of output price pressures flagged in today’s Tankan have only made a... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Tankan (Q4 2024) The mediocre increase in business conditions across all firm sizes in the latest Tankan suggests that the activity is unlikely to rebound meaningfully this quarter, following a slowdown in Q3. The... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan: December rate hike still looking more likely than not Conflicting messages by the Bank of Japan have once again left the outcome of the Bank's December meeting wide open, but on balance we're sticking to our forecast of another rate hike in a couple of... 6th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (October 24) Base pay rose the most since 1992 in October and we think it will continue to hold strong through to the end of next year 5th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will hike rates to 1.25% by end-2026 We now expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain above the Bank of Japan’s target for most of next year as the yen remains weak for longer and the upcoming spring wage negotiations... 3rd December 2024 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates in Q2 as underlying inflation softens The renewed pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in October marked the final nail in the coffin for a rate cut before year-end. To be sure, by our measures quarterly trimmed mean inflation is on track to... 29th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike rates further to 1.25% by 2026 The pick-up in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo in November points to the nationwide measure rising further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. With the yen set to remain weak for... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upcoming Shunto will result in bigger pay hikes The stars are aligning for our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again by year-end. And with a recent survey of Japanese firms pointing to even bigger pay hikes in next year's... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
