Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s real estate boom not a concern (yet) Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector is in the midst of a boom and affordability among Saudi citizens for housing is becoming increasingly stretched, which may tempt the authorities to loosen lending... 19th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Why are Japan’s households not partying like its 1989? While household incomes are rising the most since the early 1990s, households are saving rather than spending the bulk of those gains. And with real income growth set to slow this year, we expect... 17th February 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The large fall in control group retail sales in January, together with the timelier data showing a slump in vehicle sales, suggests that real consumption fell last month. While weather effects were... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) With real household incomes rising the most in years and the savings rate rather high, the rebound in consumer spending will continue in 2025. And with the yen set to remain weak for longer and this... 12th February 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s economy set for a modest acceleration Saudi Arabia’s economic growth will accelerate this year as the Kingdom starts to unwind oil production cuts from April. But while the Kingdom’s non-oil sector started the year on a strong footing... 11th February 2025 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: RBA will cut rates by only 75bp this cycle We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates by 25bp, to 4.10%, at its meeting on 18th February. Although the labour market remains resilient and there are tentative signs of a pickup in... 11th February 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb. 2025) The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for February showed a decline in the headline index alongside a sharp rise in inflation expectations, suggesting that consumers are increasingly... 7th February 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA will look past strong household spending data Provisional household spending data published this week suggest that private consumption may have picked up more strongly in Q4 than the Reserve Bank of Australia had anticipated. However, given the... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec. 24) December’s fall in euro-zone retail sales means that growth over Q4 as a whole slowed substantially. We suspect that spending growth will remain subdued in the coming quarters. 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Despite the recent weak news on activity and the uncertainty around the global outlook due to Trump’s US import tariffs, the stronger news on domestic price pressures means the Bank of England will... 5th February 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Dec./Q4 2024) 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Economics Weekly: China’s AI shock, Year of the Snake The launch of DeepSeek's new AI model had US markets reeling at the start of this week, but we don't think it’s a sign that China's AI technology is poised to overtake the US. And while snake years... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Tariff uncertainty casts clouds over recent upturn Donald Trump's first week back in office brought renewed threats of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada, with a potential imposition date of February 1st also thrown in. Such uncertainty will dog... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: EU still “in for tariffs”, ECB set for another rate cut Though President Trump reserved his main tariff threats for others this week, he still complained about the EU’s trade surplus with the US and suggested the bloc is “in for tariffs”. We think US... 24th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Nov. 2024) On the surface, the 0.4% decline in retail sales volumes in November looks worrying, but that fall partly reflects households delaying purchases ahead of the December GST holiday. Encouragingly... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Gentle fall in UK household saving rate to support spending Our analysis suggests that most of the recent rise in the household saving rate can be attributed to cyclical rather than structural factors, which means the saving rate will slowly fall as interest... 23rd January 2025 · 5 mins read
