The surprise 0.3% q/q contraction in South Africa’s GDP was largely due to a slump in agriculture which should unwind. Along with low inflation and continued monetary easing, we expect the economic recovery to quickly get back on track. Elsewhere, President Biden’s trip to Angola came with new money for the flagship Lobito rail project. We suspect US investment in the project will continue under President Trump, given there's a clear incentive for when it comes to securing critical minerals and challenging China's influence. Finally, tomorrow’s presidential elections in Ghana will see competing visions for growth collide, but we expect fiscal discipline to constrain the winner.
Does Donald Trump's return to the White House portend a radically different outlook for the emerging world? Our economists will be online on Thursday 12th December to discuss this and to take your questions. Register for the event here.
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