In South Africa, next week will see the Treasury present its budget for 2025, an event in which we think the government will struggle to balance the trade-offs of recommitting to fiscal tightening while also appearing pro-growth. At the same time, we think the government will worry about recent protectionist developments originating from the US. While we expect the impact of recent US aid cuts and tariffs on South Africa and its SSA peers to be small, we do think some countries in the region may be prompted by the US’s actions to forge even closer links with the China-aligned block.
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