US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jul. 12) The further decline in CPI inflation to a 20-month low of 1.4% in July, from 1.7%, gives the Fed even more flexibility to act next month, if it feels the economy needs a little more stimulus to drive... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Jul.) The sharp 0.8% m/m rebound in retail sales in July was the first increase in four months, but only reversed the declines in the previous two months. So although consumers might have loosened their... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun. 12) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit in June suggests that the easing in global demand and the strengthening in the dollar have yet to take a major toll on the US economy. But we doubt this can... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The bigger than expected 163,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July, up from a muted 64,000 in June, will ease fears that the US economy is following Europe into recession. If this proves to be the... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul. 12) The soft ISM manufacturing report for July suggests that the economy will continue to grow at the sub-par annualised rate of around 1.5% in the third quarter. While this is not fast enough to reduce... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jul.), Income & Spending (Jun.) The rebound in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a three-month high of 65.9 in July, from 62.7 in June, suggests that the positive impact from the recent rally in equity prices... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The 1.5% annualised rise in GDP in the second quarter shows that the economy has lost a fair amount of momentum this year. Nonetheless, the recent run of data probably hasn’t been quite weak enough to... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Jun.) June’s durable goods orders figures provide a upside risk to our forecast that GDP grew at an annualised rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, but not one large enough to warrant changing the forecast... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jun.) Consumer prices were unchanged in June and the annual inflation rate remained at 1.7%, underlining that the Fed can afford to focus its monetary policy on the slowdown in the real economy. Even though... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jul.) & Producer Prices (Jun.) The latest confidence data suggest that although consumers remain cautious, at least they aren't panicking. Elsewhere, the modest 0.1% m/m increase in producer prices in June is another illustration... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The modest narrowing in the trade deficit to $48.7bn in May, from $50.6bn, was mainly due to a price-related drop in the cost of imported oil, so there is no reason to believe that second-quarter real... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 80,000 rise in payroll employment in June provides further evidence that the US economy has lost momentum since the turn of the year, but that the recovery is not grinding to a complete halt. 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The fall in June’s ISM manufacturing index to below 50 for the first time since the last recession is the surest sign yet that the US is catching the slowdown already underway in Europe and China. But... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (May) The stagnation in durable goods orders in recent months is a clear sign that, in response to the easing in global demand, America’s industrial recovery is running out of steam. 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The fourth consecutive monthly fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, to 62.0 in June from 64.4 in May, is a clear indication that the turmoil in equity prices remains a drag on... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Prod'n (May) & Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The 0.4% m/m drop in manufacturing output in May and the slump in consumer confidence to a nine-month low are further illustrations of how rapidly the economy has lost momentumafter a very strong... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
