US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) It is mildly encouraging that consumption in January did not capitulate completely after the recent tax hikes. And while higher taxes and the latest leap in gasoline prices could yet hit sales harder... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The unexpected narrowing of the trade deficit to $38.5bn in December, from $48.6bn the month before, pretty much guarantees that the dip in fourth-quarter GDP will be revised to a small gain in the... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The increase in the ISM manufacturing index to a one-year high of 53.1 in January, from 50.2 in December, indicates that the improvement in global factory conditions, evident in the rebound in various... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) Coming on the heels of the unexpected dip in fourth-quarter GDP, January's Employment Report should help to soothe any lingering concerns that the economy is headed for a recession. 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 12 1st Estimate) The 0.1% q/q decline in fourth-quarter GDP growth is going to get everybody very excited today, but this isn't the start of a new recession. First-quarter GDP growth is going to be pretty weak because... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The drop in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a 14-month low of 58.6 in January, from 66.7, appears to have been driven by the recent payroll tax increase. Even if confidence does... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec. 12) Business investment apparently enjoyed an unexpected renaissance over the final few months of last year, only getting stronger as the fiscal cliff deadline got closer. Durable goods orders increased... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The slight drop in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a one-year low of 71.3 in January, from 72.9, suggests that the actual onset of lower after-tax incomes in the New... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Dec. 12) Inflation dipped further below the Fed's 2% target in December, leaving it free to focus its policy efforts on reducing the still elevated unemployment rate. 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Dec. 12) The apparent strength of retail sales growth over the final few months of last year suggests that the looming fiscal cliff, including the risk of higher taxes, did little to deter consumers over the... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov. 12) The unexpected widening in the trade deficit to a seven-month high of $48.7bn in November, from $42.1bn, is not good news for fourth-quarter GDP growth. It looks like GDP growth was between 1.0% and 1... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 155,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in December is yet another month of job growth that is just about enough to keep pace with the underlying growth in the labour force, but not enough to drive... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The very modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.7 in December, from 49.5, illustrates that the factory sector ended last year still caught between the cross-fire of a global economic... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Personal Income/Spend. & Durable Goods (Nov.) November's personal income/spending and durable goods reports suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be a little stronger than we previously thought. We are revising our forecast up from 1.5% to... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Nov. 12) The drop back in inflation below the 2% target in November will allow the Fed to continue focusing its efforts on boosting the real economy. This is just as well when, after stripping out the effect... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Nov. 12) November’s retail sales figures didn’t alter our view that consumption is struggling to find momentum. With consumer confidence now falling, hopes that retailers would enjoy a robust holiday shopping... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
