US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) & Empire State Index (Oct.) The strong rise in retail sales in September was probably flattered by a gain in food prices (triggered by the recent drought) and the release of Apple’s iPhone 5. Nonetheless, it now seems likely... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Producer Prices (Sep.) & Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence shot up to a five-year high of 83.1 in October, from 78.3, but we're not convinced this upturn will lead to faster consumption growth. For a... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug. 12) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $44.2bn in August, from $42.5bn, was due to the combination of a drop in exports and an increase in the value of petroleum-related imports. 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) While the modest 114,000 increase in September's non-farm payrolls was no better than the consensus forecast, the 86,000 upward revision to job gains in the two months before that and the decline in... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in September will boost hopes that some of the recent slowdown in economic growth was just a summer phenomenon. But while GDP growth may accelerate a bit, a... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Aug.) & GDP (Q2 3rd Est.) Don't panic. The massive 13.2% m/m slump in durable goods orders in August was largely due to a drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft component. In addition, the downward revision... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Thanks to the continued rally in equity prices, the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence shot up to a seven-month high of 70.3 in September, from 61.3 in August. It appears that... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Markit Manufacturing PMI & Philly Fed (Sep.) The key message from the host of September manufacturing surveys recently released is that conditions haven’t really deteriorated since last month, but industry is still the weakest part of the... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Despite the sharp increase in gasoline prices and the looming fiscal cliff, the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence rose to a four-month high of 79.2 in September, from 74.3 in... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) The main message from August’s retail sales and industrial production data is that economic growth remains subdued, and it could yet get weaker. 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug. 12) Consumer prices increased by a sizeable 0.6% m/m in August, largely thanks to a 9.0% m/m rebound in gasoline prices. Nevertheless, even after that big monthly gain, the annual rate of inflation only... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) July’s trade figures are nowhere near as good as they look at first sight, as they mask a significant deterioration in export growth to the euro-zone. What’s more, the full impact on the US economy... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug. 12) The modest 96,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August only increases the probability that the Fed will launch QE3 next week and it won't help President Obama's re-election chances either. 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) August’s ISM manufacturing index gives the Fed another green light to launch QE3 next week. Such action is warranted, but it won’t dramatically alter the economic landscape. 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in August suggests that households are becoming more nervous. Coming after last week’s soft durable goods orders data, this is another... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Jul. 12) At first glance the 4.2% m/m surge in July's durable goods orders looks very impressive, but nothing could be further from the truth. This is a very weak report. The slump in core capital goods orders... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
