US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The decline in the trade deficit in October is unlikely to be sustained, not least as US exports can’t continue to grow at current rates when global demand is weakening. 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The decline in the unemployment rate to a two-and-a-half-year low of 8.6% in November, from 9.0%, is another illustration that the US economy is, for now at least, shrugging off the global economic... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) Shrugging off the apparent sharp slowdown in growth in Asia and what looks like a renewed recession in Europe, the ISM manufacturing index rebounded to a five-month high of 52.7 in November, from 50.8... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The jump in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month high of 56.0 in November, from 40.9 in October, is an encouraging sign given the growing concerns in the euro-zone. 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders & Personal Spending (Oct.) October's weaker than expected personal spending and durable goods orders data suggest that annualised fourth-quarter GDP growth may be closer to 2.5% rather than the 3.0% that previously looked... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Oct.) Headline CPI inflation is now past its peak, falling to 3.5% in October, down from a high of 3.9% in September. It should drop to about 3.0% by the end of this year and plummet to nearer 2.0% by March... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) It is becoming quite clear that the economy has a decent amount of momentum that should help it cope, at least for now, with any adverse effects emanating from Europe. Annualised GDP growth in the... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The narrowing in the trade deficit in September suggests that annualised third-quarter GDP growth may be revised up from 2.5% to perhaps 2.8%. But a slowdown in overseas activity means the external... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) October's Employment Report has pluses and minuses but, on balance, it is positive. Non-farm payrolls increased by a modest 80,000 last month, down from a revised 158,000 gain in September. 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) There was little in October's ISM manufacturing survey to suggest that the US economy has moved any closer towards another recession. But equally, there were no real signs that economic growth is... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The acceleration in third-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, from 1.3%, would seem to make a mockery of fears that emerged early in the quarter that the economy was entering a recession... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Sep.) September's durable goods report is broadly consistent with our estimate that third-quarter GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% annualised, in part due to a sharp pick up in business investment (data due... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The modest 0.1% m/m increase in core consumer prices in September, which was more precisely only a 0.054% gain, should ease fears among the hawks at the Fed that underlying inflation is spiraling out... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Despite signs of a slowdown in global economic growth and the fragile state of business confidence, manufacturing output is still expanding at a solid pace. 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The decent 1.1% m/m rise in retail sales in September shows that households are not completely down and out. Real consumption in the third quarter probably rose at an annualised rate of close to 2%... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The widening in the bilateral trade deficit with China to a record high in August is only going to make the trade protection bill passed by the Senate this week more popular. With fiscal and monetary... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read