US Data Response International Trade (Oct. 12) October’s trade release is the latest to look worse than it really is due to the effects of superstorm Sandy. Nonetheless, another year of tepid global growth will mean that the external sector... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The sharp drop in December's University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low of 74.5, from 82.7, suggests that the looming fiscal cliff has finally started to take a toll... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) November's Employment Report is something of a mixed bag but, on balance, it's a positive. Non-farm payroll employment increased by a better than expected 146,000 last month, well above the consensus... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The drop in the ISM manufacturing index back below the supposed boom/bust level of 50 for the first time since July may not be due to superstorm Sandy. Instead, it may be a result of the uncertainty... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) November's slight uptick in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a near-five-year high of 73.7, from 73.1 in October, appears to have been driven by lower gasoline prices. Despite... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Oct.) October's durable goods data suggest that the slump in business investment eased slightly last month. But we don't anticipate any marked turnaround until Congress gets its act together and reaches an... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The annual rate of CPI inflation edged back up to 2.2% last month, from 2.0%, but will drop back before year-end thanks to the continued decline in gasoline prices. Core inflation remained unchanged... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s retail sales figures suggest that consumption has lost a bit of momentum ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season. If this was due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy, then sales will... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The rise in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to 84.9 in November, from 82.6, appears to have been driven by a combination of the recent drop back in gasoline prices and the... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep. 12) The unexpected narrowing in the trade deficit in September opens the door to an modest upward revision to third-quarter real GDP growth. The bigger picture is that the weak global backdrop will... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) We doubt that October's Employment Report is either strong enough or weak enough to have any marked impact on next week's presidential election. Non-farm payrolls increased by a better than expected... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) A mild improvement in the global economy appears to be supporting American industry while, at the same time, the housing recovery has continued to strengthen. 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Despite the increase in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a near-five-year high of 72.2 in October, from 68.4 in September, annualised consumption growth is unlikely to post a... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 12 1st Estimate) The US economy expanded by a solid 2.0% annualised in the third quarter, up from 1.3% in the second, as a pick-up in consumption growth more than offset a decline in business investment. We suspect... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Sep.) Bizarrely, even though September's durable goods report shows an above-consensus 9.9% m/m rebound in orders, the overall report is a disappointment that signals third-quarter GDP growth was weaker... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Sep.) At the start of next year, the MPC will have to decide what to do with those gilts purchased in its quantitative easing (QE) programme that are about to mature. We expect the Committee to maintain its... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
