US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Current Account (Q1) Plummeting energy prices and favourable base effects drove headline CPI inflation below the Fed's 2.0% target in May, for the first time in 16 months. The annual rate actually fell to 1.7%, from 2.3%... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (May) The stalling in underlying retail sales growth in May suggests that the recent easing in jobs growth has started to curtail spending. We doubt, however, that the economic recovery has come to a... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.)12 The narrowing in the trade deficit in April is encouraging, especially given that the latest fall in the oil price will reduce the cost of imported oil. More worrying, however, are the growing signs... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The modest decline in the ISM manufacturing index, to 53.5 in May from 54.8 the month before, was probably a lot better than most people had fearedafter the weak payrolls data and the sharp declines... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) May's employment report clearly suggests that labour market conditions are deteriorating again, which will undoubtedly prompt more speculation that QE3is coming soon. Non-farm payrolls increased by... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) The fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low of 64.9 in May, from 68.7 in April, suggests that the sharp drop back in stock markets was the dominant factor... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Markit's new PMI looks to be a valuable addition Markit’s new US manufacturing PMI appears to be better at capturing changes in GDP growth and manufacturing output than the ISM survey. That said, the very limited history means the real test is... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Apr.) While the 0.2% m/m increase in durable goods orders in April was in line with the consensus forecast, we would still label this a mildly disappointing report, since that gain was largely driven by an... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Apr.) Falling energy prices and favourable base effectspushed the annual CPI inflation rate down to a 12-month low of 2.3% in April, from 2.7%. Headline CPI inflation will fall below 2.0% over the next few... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The sharp rise in imports in March is unlikely to be a sign that domestic demand has strengthened markedly. Nonetheless, imports are still likely to grow at a faster pace than exports this year... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The very modest 115,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April will raise fears that the recovery is fading fast, just like it did at this time last year. We still think the true health of the labour... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manu. Index (Apr.) & Const'n Spending (Mar.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in April will ease concerns that the softer tone of the recent incoming economic data marked the start of another midyear slump in growth. 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) First-quarter GDP growth came in at a disappointing 2.2% annualised, but the undershoot compared with the 2.5% consensus forecast was largely explained by an unexpected second consecutive quarterly... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Mar.) The unexpectedly big 4.2% m/m slump in durable goods orders in March isn't quite as bad as it looks, particularly as the details of the report suggest that there is now some upside risk to our... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The trivial fall in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 69.2 in April, from 69.5 March, was broadly in line with the already reported modest decline in the University of Michigan... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The soft industrial production and housing starts figures for March add to the evidence that economic growth may have eased towards the end of the first quarter. 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
