US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) & Empire State Index (Apr.) Households appear to be contributing more to the economic recovery just at a time when the industrial recovery seems to be running out of stream. Some of the strength in consumption in the first... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Despite the 0.3% m/m increase in consumer prices in March, favourable base effects still pushed the annual rate of CPI inflation down to a 12-month low of 2.7%, from 2.9%. The rate should fall to... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) & PPI (Mar.) In response to the unexpected narrowing in the trade deficit in February, we have raised our estimate for first-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, from 2.0%. Meanwhile, we doubt that that the... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The disappointingly modest 120,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March, which was exactly half the 240,000 gain month before, mainly reflects some payback from the unseasonably warm winter. Between... 6th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufact'ng (Mar.) & Const'n Spending (Feb.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index in March leaves it consistent with annualised GDP growth of around 2.5%, which is in line with our estimate for the first quarter. 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Feb.) The 2.2% m/m increase in February's durable goods orders was well below the 3.0% consensus forecast and our own even higher 5.5% forecast, principally because of an inexplicably small 6.0% rebound in... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The slight fall in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 70.2 in March, from a 12-month high of 71.6, only reversed a small portion of the gain in February. We are not too worried... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Feb.) Higher gasoline prices will limit the decline in CPI inflation over the next few months, while the growth rate of manufacturing output is likely to slow to a more sustainable pace. 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The recent improvement in retail sales should gain further traction in the coming months, as the stronger gains in employment translate into faster income and consumption growth. 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) February's Employment Report adds to the evidence that the labour market has turned a corner. Non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 in February, slightly above the consensus forecast of 210,000... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manu. & Personal Income/Spending (Feb./Jan.) Today’s batch of data casts doubt over hopes that the economy has finally embarked on a strong and sustained recovery. When taken together, the figures support our view that annualised GDP growth in... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Despite surging gasoline prices, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence shot up to a 12-month high of 70.8 in February, from 61.5 last month. The latest increase presumably reflects the... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Jan.) The 4.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders in January, which more than reversed a 3.2% m/m gain in December, suggests that the expiry at the end of last year of the accelerated tax allowances for... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) January's consumer price data are a mixed bag. Headline inflation fell to a ten-month low of 2.9%, from 3.0%, while core inflation edged up to a three-year high of 2.3%, from 2.2%. Favourable base... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) & Empire State (Feb.) Ignore the fact that industrial production was unchanged in January, well below the consensus forecast of a 0.7% m/m gain, the manufacturing sector is on a tear. Manufacturing output increased by 0.7%... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s retail sales data are better than they look and provide yet more evidence that the US economy is improving. 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
